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The Phillips Curve and NAIRU Revisited: New Estimates for Germany

  • Bernd Fitzenberger
  • Wolfgang Franz
  • Oliver Bode

Starting in 2006 the German economy currently experiences a cyclical revival which spreads to the labor market. Unemployment decreases markedly and regular employ- ment rises. At present, virtually all professional forecasts expect this upswing to con- tinue in the foreseeable future.

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File URL: https://www.ifw-members.ifw-kiel.de/publications/the-phillips-curve-and-nairu-revisited-new-estimates-for-germany/kap1344.pdf
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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1344.

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Length: 53 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1344
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  1. Camille Logeay & Silke Tober, 2006. "Hysteresis And The Nairu In The Euro Area," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 53(4), pages 409-429, 09.
  2. Franz, Wolfgang, 2003. "Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand up?," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-35, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  3. Robert J. Gordon, 1996. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," NBER Working Papers 5735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Snower, Dennis J. & Karanassou, Marika, 2002. "An Anatomy of the Phillips Curve," IZA Discussion Papers 635, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Franz, Wolfgang & Gordon, Robert J., 1993. "German and American wage and price dynamics : Differences and common themes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 719-754, May.
  6. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2000. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1905, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  7. George A. Akerlof, 2002. "Behavioral Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 411-433, June.
  8. Bernd Fitzenberger & Wolfgang Franz & Oliver Bode, 2008. "The Phillips Curve and NAIRU Revisited: New Estimates for Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 228(5+6), pages 465-496, December.
  9. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & López-Salido, J David, 2001. "European Inflation Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 2684, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
  11. Thomas Laubach, 2001. "Measuring The NAIRU: Evidence From Seven Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 218-231, May.
  12. Sbordone, A.M., 1998. "Prices and Unit Labor Costs: a New Test of Price Stickiness," Papers 653, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  13. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Working Papers 5477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
  15. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
  16. Fabiani, Silvia & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "A system approach for measuring the euro area NAIRU," Working Paper Series 0065, European Central Bank.
  17. Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Measuring uncertainty of the euro area NAIRU: Monte Carlo and empirical evidence for alternative confidence intervals in a state space framework," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 357-379, March.
  18. Schreiber, Sven & Wolters, Jurgen, 2007. "The long-run Phillips curve revisited: Is the NAIRU framework data-consistent?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 355-367, June.
  19. Franz, Wolfgang & Gordon, Robert J., 1993. "German and American wage and price dynamics: Differences and common themes," Discussion Papers 2, University of Konstanz, Center for International Labor Economics (CILE).
  20. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "Trend inflation and inflation persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Staff Reports 270, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  21. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 297-346.
  22. Robinson, Peter M, 1988. "Root- N-Consistent Semiparametric Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 931-54, July.
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