Pro-poor Growth in Bolivia: Accounting for External Shocks and Policy Reforms
This paper analyzes how major external shocks and policy reforms affect Bolivia’s ability to achieve pro-poor growth. Employing a recursive-dynamic CGE model, it considers three different scenarios: an optimistic baseline scenario that roughly extrapolates the situation prevailing before the onset of the recent economic crisis; a more realistic scenario that accounts for two important negative external shocks (declining capital inflows and El Niño); and a scenario that captures the combined effect of the shocks and two major reform projects (development of the gas sector and deregulation of the urban labor market). It turns out that the shocks have not only contributed to the economic crisis, but that they are also likely to impair Bolivia’s medium-term development prospects, leading to marked increases in both urban and rural poverty. If the reform projects were implemented, their impact on growth would be large enough to slightly overcompensate the impact of the negative external shocks. The poverty increase caused by the shocks would be more than offset for urban households, but reinforced for rural households.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Kiellinie 66, D-24105 Kiel|
Phone: +49 431 8814-1
Fax: +49 431 85853
Web page: http://www.ifw-kiel.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- repec:idb:brikps:publication-detail,7101.html?id=68558 is not listed on IDEAS
- Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2002.
"Growth Is Good for the Poor,"
Journal of Economic Growth,
Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 195-225, September.
- Eduardo Lora, 2001.
"Structural reforms in Latin America: What has been reformed and how to measure it?,"
Research Department Publications
4287, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Eduardo Lora, 2001. "Structural Reforms in Latin America: What Has Been Reformed and How to Measure It," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 39858, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Eduardo Lora, 2001. "Structural Reforms in Latin America: What Has Been Reformed and How to Measure It," Research Department Publications 4293, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Rainer Thiele & Daniel Piazolo, 2003. "A Social Accounting Matrix for Bolivia Featuring Formal and Informal Activities," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(120), pages 285-318.
- Eduardo Lora & Ugo Panizza, 2002.
"Structural Reforms in Latin America under Scrutiny,"
Research Department Publications
4301, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Eduardo Lora & Ugo Panizza, 2002. "Structural Reforms in Latin America under Scrutiny," Research Department Publications 4303, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Ravallion, Martin & Datt, Gaurav, 1999. "When is growth pro-poor? Evidence from the diverse experiences of India's states," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2263, The World Bank.
- Ravallion, Martin, 2001.
"Growth, inequality, and poverty : looking beyond averages,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
2558, The World Bank.
- Ravallion, Martin, 2001. "Growth, Inequality and Poverty: Looking Beyond Averages," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1803-1815, November.
- Jemio, Luis Carlos & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2003. "¿Existe Espacio para Políticas Anti-Shocks en Bolivia? Lecciones de un Análisis basado en un Modelo de Equilibrio General Computable," Documentos de trabajo 1/2003, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
- Gemio, Luis Carlos & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2003. "¿Existe espacio para políticas anti-shock en Bolivia?," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana, issue 1, pages 37-68, Septiembr.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1231. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dieter Stribny)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.