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Macroeconomic Impacts of External Shocks and Anti-Shock Policies in Bolivia: A CGE Analysis

  • Luis Carlos Jemio
  • Manfred Wiebelt

Bolivia's mid-term growth prospects are promising but these prospects could be lost, due to social unrest and political instability, if the country does not solve its short-term economic problems, resulting from both external shocks and internal factors. Against this background, this paper analyzes whether the Bolivian economy has any possibility at all to apply anti-shock policies in order to cushion the short-term effects of shocks. For this purpose, a recursive-dynamic CGE model is described which includes both real and financial sectors and which captures the particular features that characterize the functioning of the Bolivian economy. The model is then used to evaluate the effects of external shocks and to test the effectiveness of different policies.

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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1100.

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Length: 59 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1100
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  1. Luis Carlos Jemio, 2001. "Macroeconomic Adjustment in Bolivia since the 1970s: Adjustment to What, By Whom, and How? Analytical Insights from a SAM Model," Kiel Working Papers 1031, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  2. Bourguinon, Francois & Branson, William H. & De Melo, Jaime, 1989. "Adjustment and income distribution : a counterfactual analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 215, The World Bank.
  3. Andersen, Lykke Eg & Meza, Mauricio, 2001. "The Natural Gas Sector in Bolivia: An Overview," Documentos de trabajo 1/2001, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
  4. Wiebelt, Manfred, 1996. "Anpassung und Einkommensverteilung in Entwicklungsländern: Eine angewandte allgemeine Gleichgewichtsanalyse für Malaysia," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 890, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  5. Andersen, Lykke Eg & Nina, Osvaldo, 2000. "The HIPC Initiative In Bolivia," Documentos de trabajo 4/2000, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
  6. Andersen, Lykke Eg & Faris, Robert, 2001. "Reducing Volatility due to Natural Gas Exports: Is the Answer a Stabilization Fund?," Documentos de trabajo 11/2001, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
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