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Geldpolitik und vorausschauende Taylor-Regeln ; Theorie und Empirie am Beispiel der Deutschen Bundesbank

  • Christophe Kamps
  • Christian Pierdzioch

In diesem Beitrag wird aufgezeigt, dass sich die Geldpolitik der Deutschen Bundesbank im Zeitraum 1991 bis 1998 gut mit Hilfe einer so genannten vorausschauenden Taylor-Regel beschreiben lässt. Die Deutsche Bundesbank stabilisierte in den 90er Jahren sowohl die Inflation als auch die Konjunktur. Die Geldmenge beeinflusste das Verhalten der Zentralbank über ihre Eigenschaft als Frühindikator für die zukünftige Inflation. This paper uses the empirical framework for estimating forward looking monetary policy rules developed in Clarida, Galí and Gertler (1998, 2000) to study monetary policy in Germany in the period 1991 to 1998. The estimation results show that the Bundesbank stabilized both inflation and the output gap in the 1990s. The money aggregate M3 influenced the behavior of the German central bank through its property as a leading indicator for future inflation.

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File URL: https://www.ifw-members.ifw-kiel.de/publications/geldpolitik-und-vorausschauende-taylor-regeln-theorie-und-empirie-am-beispiel-der-deutschen-bundesbank/kap1089.pdf
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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1089.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1089
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  1. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Svensson, Lars E O, 1999. "Does the P* Model Provide Any Rationale for Monetary Targeting?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2198, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 97-32, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  4. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  5. Sharon Kozicki, 1999. "How useful are Taylor rules for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-33.
  6. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
  7. Scott, Alasdair, 2003. "APPLIED MACROECONOMETRICS Carlo A. Favero Oxford University Press, 2001," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 313-315, April.
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