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Markov or Not Markov, This Should Be a Question

Author

Listed:
  • Frank Bickenbach
  • Eckhardt Bode

Abstract

Although it is well known that Markov process theory, frequently applied in the literature on income convergence, imposes some very restrictive assumptions upon the data generating process, these assumptions have generally been taken for granted so far. The present paper proposes, resp. recalls chi-square tests of the Markov property, of spatial independence, and of homogeneity across time and space to assess the reliability of estimated Markov transition matrices. As an illustration we show that the evolution of the income distribution across the 48 coterminous U.S. states from 1929 to 2000 clearly has not followed a Markov process.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Bickenbach & Eckhardt Bode, 2001. "Markov or Not Markov, This Should Be a Question," Kiel Working Papers 1086, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  • Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1086
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    File URL: https://www.ifw-members.ifw-kiel.de/publications/markov-or-not-markov-this-should-be-a-question/kap1086.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Convergence; Markov process; chi-square tests; U.S. regional growth;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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