Cointegration Analysis in an Inflationary Environment: What Can We Learn from Ukraine's Nominal Exports?
Ukrainian exports can be explained by standard demand theory in the long run. Using the Johansen procedure the data do not reject the hypothesis of a unit foreign-production elasticity of Ukrainian exports, which are rather price-elastic inputs for foreign producers. It is argued that due to high domestic inflation and substantial real appreciation of the hryvnia there might be a deterministic element in the long-run relationships. When allowing for a trend in the cointegration space, the identifying restriction of an infinitely price-elastic export supply curve produces best results. However, due to missing export price statistics long-run interpretations are to be taken with care because they are conditional upon assumptions on how costs and exchange-rates are passed through on export prices.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2001|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Kiellinie 66, D-24105 Kiel|
Phone: +49 431 8814-1
Fax: +49 431 85853
Web page: http://www.ifw-kiel.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alan Deardorff, 1998.
"Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?,"
in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 7-32
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Deardorff, A.V., 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade : Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," Papers 95-05, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
- Alan V. Deardorff, 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Working Papers 5377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mackinnon, J.G. & Haug, A.A. & Michelis, L., 1996.
"Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration,"
96a09, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
- MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-77, Sept.-Oct.
- James G. MacKinnon & Alfred A. Haug & Leo Michelis, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Working Papers 1996_07, York University, Department of Economics.
- Sawyer, W. Charles & Sprinkle, Richard L., 1997. "The Demand for Imports and Exports in Japan: A Survey," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 247-259, June.
- N/A, 1999. "The world economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 167(1), pages 3-3, January.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987.
"Exchange Rates and Prices,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Jurgen A Doornik & Henrik Hansen, .
"An omnibus test for univariate and multivariate normalit,"
W4&91., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Jurgen A. Doornik & Henrik Hansen, 2008. "An Omnibus Test for Univariate and Multivariate Normality," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 927-939, December.
- Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986.
"Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression,"
Cahiers de recherche
8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Søren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 1992.
"Identification of the Long-Run and the Short-Run Structure: An Application to the ISLM Model,"
92-04, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July.
- Cushman, David O. & MacDonald, Ronald & Samborsky, Mark, 2001. "The law of one price for transitional Ukraine," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 251-256, November.
- Shin, Yongcheol, 1994. "A Residual-Based Test of the Null of Cointegration Against the Alternative of No Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 91-115, March.
- N/A, 1999. "The world economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 170(1), pages 3-3, October.
- N/A, 1999. "The world economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 168(1), pages 3-3, April.
- Hooper, Peter & Morton, John, 1982. "Fluctuations in the dollar: A model of nominal and real exchange rate determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-56, January.
- repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:1:p:95-115 is not listed on IDEAS
- Buch, Claudia M. & Piazolo, Daniel, 2001.
"Capital and trade flows in Europe and the impact of enlargement,"
Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 183-214, September.
- Claudia M. Buch & Daniel Piazolo, 2000. "Capital and Trade Flows in Europe and the Impact of Enlargement," Kiel Working Papers 1001, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Piazolo, Daniel & Buch, Claudia M., 2000. "Capital and Trade Flows in Europe and the Impact of Enlargement," Kiel Working Papers 1001, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- N/A, 1999. "The world economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 169(1), pages 3-3, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1084. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dieter Stribny)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.