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Measuring Expected Inflation and the Ex-Ante Real Interest Rate in the Euro Area Using Structural Vector Autoregressions

  • Jan Gottschalk
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    In this paper, the structural vector autoregression methodology is used to decompose the euro area nominal short-term interest rate into an expected inflation and an ex-ante real interest rate component. The latter may be a useful indicator of the monetary policy stance of the ECB. To this end, a vector autoregression model comprised of the differenced interest rate series and the stationary component of the real interest rate is estimated and shocks to expected inflation and the ex-ante real rate are identified using the long-run restriction that only shocks to expected inflation have long-run effects on the nominal interest rate.

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    Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1067.

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    Length: 18 pages
    Date of creation: Jul 2001
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1067
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    1. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    2. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
    3. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
    4. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    5. Müller, Christian & Hahn, Elke, 2000. "Money demand in Europe: Evidence from the past," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,35, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    6. Gunter Coenen & Juan Luis Vega, 2000. "The Demand for M3 in the Euro Area," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0976, Econometric Society.
    7. St-Amant, P., 1996. "Decomposing U.S. Nominal Interest Rates into Expected Inflation and Ex Ante Real Interest rates Using Structural VAR Methodology," Staff Working Papers 96-2, Bank of Canada.
    8. Monticello, Carlo & Tristani, Oreste, 1999. "What does the single monetary policy do? A SVAR benchmark for the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series 0002, European Central Bank.
    9. Brand, Claus & Cassola, Nuno, 2000. "A money demand system for euro area M3," Working Paper Series 0039, European Central Bank.
    10. Gerlach, Stefan & Schnabel, Gert, 1999. "The Taylor Rule and Interest Rates in the EMU Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 2271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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