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Sources of Euro Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: What Is Behind the Euro Weakness in 1999-2000?

  • Jörg Döpke
  • Jan Gottschalk
  • Christophe Kamps

This paper analyzes the factors underlying the weakness of the euro. For this purpose, the framework advocated by Clarida and Gali (1994) is used. Within this model, three structural shocks drive the dynamics of the endogenous variables: aggregate supply shocks, aggregate spending shocks, and monetary shocks. Applying a structural VAR to data for the eurozone and the U.S. suggests that supply shocks are the most important factor explaining real exchange rate fluctuations in the sample from 1980 to 2000. However, historical decompositions reveal that fluctuations since the introduction of the euro in 1999 have been predominantly driven by demand shocks.

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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1050.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: May 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1050
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  1. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Michael Funke, 2000. "Macroeconomic Shocks in Euroland vs. the UK: Supply, Demand, or Nominal?," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 37, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
  3. Cohen, Daniel & Loisel, Olivier, 2000. "Why was the Euro Weak? Markets and Policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2633, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Coenen, Günter & Vega, Juan Luis, 1999. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0006, European Central Bank.
  5. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  6. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  7. Robert A. Mundell, 1962. "The Appropriate Use of Monetary and Fiscal Policy for Internal and External Stability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 70-79, March.
  8. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 4658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  10. Lane, P, 1999. "The New Open Economy Macroeconomics: A Survey," Trinity Economics Papers 993, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  11. repec:oup:qjecon:v:107:y:1992:i:2:p:709-38 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Carsten-Patrick Meier, 1999. "Predicting Real Exchange Rates from Real Interest Rate Differentials and Net Foreign Asset Stocks: Evidence for the Mark/Dollar Parity," Kiel Working Papers 962, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  13. Siebert, Horst, 2000. "The Euro : the issues for the future," Kiel Discussion Papers 361, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  14. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  15. Bas Aarle & Michael Boss & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2000. "Forecasting the Euro exchange rate using vector error correction models," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 136(2), pages 232-258, June.
  16. Clostermann, Jörg & Schnatz, Bernd, 2000. "The determinants of the euro-dollar exchange rate: synthetic fundamentals and a non-existing currency," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,02, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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