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Estimating the Aggregate Agricultural Supply Response: A Survey of Techniques and Results for Developing Countries

  • Rainer Thiele

For many low-income countries, the impact of structural reforms on economic growth and poverty alleviation crucially depends on the response of aggregate agricultural supply to changing incentives. Despite its policy relevance, the size of this parameter is still largely unknown. This paper discusses the different approaches which may be employed to quantify the agricultural supply response. It turns out that none of these approaches is likely to deliver unbiased estimates. While in cross-country regressions the problem of unobserved country characteristics cannot be fully eliminated, time-series estimations tend to suffer from the Lucas critique. Any comprehensive empirical analysis should thus rely on more than one technique in order to check the robustness of results.

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File URL: https://www.ifw-members.ifw-kiel.de/publications/estimating-the-aggregate-agricultural-supply-response-a-survey-of-techniques-and-results-for-developing-countries/kap1016.pdf
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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1016.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1016
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  1. Marc Nerlove, 1979. "The Dynamics of Supply: Retrospect and Prospect," Discussion Papers 394, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  2. Kherallah, Mylène & Delgado, Christopher L. & Gabre-Madhin, Eleni Z. & Minot, Nicholas. & Johnson, Michael., 2000. "The road half traveled," Food policy reports 10, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Kherallah, Mylène & Delgado, Christopher L. & Gabre-Madhin, Eleni Z. & Minot, Nicholas & Johnson, Michael, 2000. "The road half traveled," Issue briefs 2, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. Binswanger, Hans & Yang, Maw-Cheng & Bowers, Alan & Mundlak, Yair, 1987. "On the determinants of cross-country aggregate agricultural supply," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 111-131.
  4. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  5. Thiele, Rainer & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2000. "Sind die Anpassungsprogramme von IWF und Weltbank gescheitert? Eine Bilanz der Erfahrungen von zwei Jahrzehnten," Kiel Discussion Papers 357, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  6. Schiff, Maurice & Montenegro, Claudio E, 1997. "Aggregate Agricultural Supply Response in Developing Countries: A Survey of Selected Issues," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(2), pages 393-410, January.
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