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GARCH Modeling of Robust Market Returns

  • Lucía Cuadro Sáez
  • Manuel Moreno

Daily financial market returns (as log difference in closing prices) may be quite sensitive to operations with low trading volumes and big changes in prices frequently traded at market closing times. This paper proposes a more robust estimation of market, returns by providing a new indicator that accounts for the information content in prices and trading volumes: the volume weighted return. Then we estimate a GARCH (1,1) model for the IBEX-35 futures market that includes shocks arising from countries linked to the Spanish economy. Our empirical findings suggest that the new measure of market evolution provide more moderate estimates of the impact of the relevant news coming from abroad and thus, it might be relevant to assess the linkages of one market to other economies.

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File URL: https://www.ifw-kiel.de/ausbildung/asp/asp-wp/2007/aspwp440.pdf
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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers with number 440.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: May 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieasw:440
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  11. M. F. Omran & E. McKenzie, 2000. "Heteroscedasticity in stock returns data revisited: volume versus GARCH effects," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 553-560.
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  14. Suominen, Matti, 2001. "Trading Volume and Information Revelation in Stock Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(04), pages 545-565, December.
  15. Nikkinen, Jussi & Omran, Mohammed & Sahlstrom, Petri & Aijo, Janne, 2006. "Global stock market reactions to scheduled U.S. macroeconomic news announcements," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 92-104, September.
  16. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. " Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume versus GARCH Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 221-29, March.
  17. Tkac, Paula A., 1999. "A Trading Volume Benchmark: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 89-114, March.
  18. Hayo, Bernd & Kutan, Ali M., 2005. "IMF-related news and emerging financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1126-1142, November.
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