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Is the Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade More Pronounced in Latin America than in Asia?

  • Dieter Billen
  • Maria Melody Garcia
  • Nelli Khasanova

This paper empirically investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on East and Southeast Asian and Latin American exports from 1980 to 2004 by using a gravity model and panel data. The results show that exchange rate volatility negatively affects exports in both continents. However, the impact of exchange rate volatility is more pronounced in Latin America than in Asia for the whole sample period 1980-2004 and in the sub-period 1980- 1996, but not in the sub-period 1997-2004. Moreover, the results also show that countries with relatively high tariffs are less vulnerable to exchange rate volatility than open economies. Finally, evidence reveals that exports from high-income countries are less affected by exchange rate volatility.

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File URL: https://www.ifw-kiel.de/ausbildung/asp/asp-wp/2006/aspwp434.pdf
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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers with number 434.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieasw:434
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  1. Alan V. Deardorff, 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Working Papers 5377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Lastrapes, William D. & Koray, Faik, 1990. "Exchange rate volatility and U.S. multilateral trade flows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 341-362.
  3. Fitzsimons, E. & Hogan, V. & Neary, J.P., 1999. "Explaining the volume of North-South Trade in Ireland: a Gravity Model Approach," Papers 99/14, College Dublin, Department of Political Economy-.
  4. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
  5. Feenstra, R.C. & Kendall, J.D., 1991. "Exchange Rate Volatility and International Prices," Papers 377, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
  6. Asseery, A. & Peel, D. A., 1991. "The effects of exchange rate volatility on exports : Some new estimates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 173-177, October.
  7. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating, and Original Sin," Working Papers 03001, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  8. Brada, Josef C & Mendez, Jose, 1988. "Exchange Rate Risk, Exchange Rate Regime and the Volume of International Trade," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 263-80.
  9. Eric van Wincoop & Philippe Bacchetta, 2000. "Does Exchange-Rate Stability Increase Trade and Welfare?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1093-1109, December.
  10. Froot, Kenneth A. & Kim, Michael & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The Law of One Price Over 700 Years," Working Papers 95-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  11. Daria Taglioni, 2002. "Exchange Rate Volatility as a Barrier to Trade: New Methodologies and Recent Evidence," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 89-90, pages 227-259.
  12. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
  13. Belanger, Denis & Gutierrez, Sylvia & Racette, Daniel & Raynauld, Jacques, 1992. "The impact of exchange rate variability on trade flows: Further results on sectoral U.S. imports from Canada," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 61-82.
  14. Sauer, Christine & Bohara, Alok K, 2001. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: Regional Differences between Developing and Industrialized Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 133-52, February.
  15. Gagnon, Joseph E., 1993. "Exchange rate variability and the level of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3-4), pages 269-287, May.
  16. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-81, August.
  17. Koray, Faik & Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 708-12, November.
  18. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521034234 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. SaangJoon Baak, 2004. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade among the Asia Pacific Countries," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 724, Econometric Society.
  20. Martin J. Bailey & George S. Tavlas, 1988. "Trade and Investment under Floating Rates: The U.S. Experience," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 8(2), pages 421-449, Fall.
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