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Did the Crisis Affect Potential Output?

  • Makram El-Shagi

Conventional Phillips-curve models that are used to estimate the output gap detect a substantial decline in potential output due to the present crisis. Using a multivariate state space model, we show that this result does not hold if the long run role of excess liquidity (that we estimate endogeneously) for inflation is taken into account.

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Paper provided by Halle Institute for Economic Research in its series IWH Discussion Papers with number 9.

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Date of creation: Apr 2010
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Handle: RePEc:iwh:dispap:9-10
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