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Monetary Policy in a World Where Money (Also) Matters

  • Makram El-Shagi
  • Sebastian Giesen
  • Logan J. Kelly

While the long-run relation between money and inflation as predicted by the quantity theory is well established, empirical studies of the short-run adjustment process have been inconclusive at best. The literature regarding the validity of the quantity theory within a given economy is mixed. Previous research has found support for quantity theory within a given economy by combining the P-Star, the structural VAR and the monetary aggregation literature. However, these models lack precise modelling of the short-run dynamics by ignoring interest rates as the main policy instrument. Contrarily, most New Keynesian approaches, while excellently modeling the short-run dynamics transmitted through interest rates, ignore the role of money and thus the potential mid-and long-run effects of monetary policy. We propose a parsimonious and fairly unrestrictive econometric model that allows a detailed look into the dynamics of a monetary policy shock by accounting for changes in economic equilibria, such as potential output and money demand, in a framework that allows for both monetarist and New Keynesian transmission mechanisms, while also considering the Barnett critique. While we confirm most New Keynesian findings concerning the short-run dynamics, we also find strong evidence for a substantial role of the quantity of money for price movements.

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Paper provided by Halle Institute for Economic Research in its series IWH Discussion Papers with number 6.

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Date of creation: Jul 2012
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Handle: RePEc:iwh:dispap:6-12
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  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Kelly, Logan & Barnett, William A. & Keating, John, 2010. "Rethinking the liquidity puzzle: application of a new measure of the economic money stock," MPRA Paper 22087, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Richard G. Anderson & Robert H. Rasche, 2000. "Retail sweep programs and bank reserves, 1994--1999," Working Papers 2000-023, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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  10. el-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian & Kelly, Logan J., 2011. "The Quantity Theory Revisited: A New Structural Approach," IWH Discussion Papers 7/2011, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
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  12. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "Does the P* Model Provide Any Rationale for Monetary Targeting?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 1(1), pages 69-81, 02.
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