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Auswirkungen demografischer Veränderungen auf Niveau und Struktur des Privaten Verbrauchs – eine Prognose für Deutschland bis 2050 –

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  • Harald Lehmann
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    This thesis analyzes the impact of different demografic scenarios on level and composition of private consumption in Germany. The analysis is based on the current household budget survey (Einkommens- und Verbrauchsstichprobe 1998) whose datas are adapted to the concepts of national accounting. Therefore households have to be defined by demografic aspects to investigate their consumption behavior. In the next step this will be used to forecast the effects of an aging population on private consumption by utilize a shift share analysis. The results lay open that the demografic impact is minor compared to economic factors influencing the composition of private consumption. This holds also in regard to the development of the absolute level of private consumption.

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    Paper provided by Halle Institute for Economic Research in its series IWH Discussion Papers with number 195.

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    Date of creation: Sep 2004
    Handle: RePEc:iwh:dispap:195
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