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Signaling Currency Crises in South Africa

  • Tobias Knedlik

Currency crises episodes of 1996, 1998, and 2001 are used to identify common country specific causes of currency crises in South Africa. The paper identifies crises by the use of an Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) index as introduced by Eichengreen, Rose and Wyplosz (1996). It extends the Signals Approach introduced by Kaminsky and Reinhart (1996, 1998) by developing a composite indicator in order to measure the evolution of currency crisis risk in South Africa. The analysis considers the standard suspects from international currency crises and country specifics as identified by the Myburgh Commission (2002) and current literature as potentially relevant indicators.

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Paper provided by Halle Institute for Economic Research in its series IWH Discussion Papers with number 19.

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Date of creation: Nov 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iwh:dispap:19-06
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  1. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 1999. "Banking and currency crises: how common are twins?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 99-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Andrew Berg & Catherine Pattillo, 1999. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1.
  3. Steven B. Kamin & John W. Schindler & Shawna L. Samuel, 2001. "The contribution of domestic and external factors to emerging market devaluation crises: an early warning systems approach," International Finance Discussion Papers 711, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
  5. Kumar, Mohan & Moorthy, Uma & Perraudin, William, 2003. "Predicting emerging market currency crashes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 427-454, September.
  6. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2006. "Are emerging market currency crises predictable? A test," Working Paper Series 0571, European Central Bank.
  8. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2001. "Estimating Monetary Policy rules for South Africa," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2001-07, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  9. Abdul Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach," IMF Working Papers 03/32, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Pavan Ahluwalia, 1999. "Discriminating Contagion: An Alternative Explanation of Contagious Currency Crises in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 00/14, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
  12. Ramon Moreno, 2000. "Pegging and macroeconomic performance in East Asia," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2000-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  13. Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Reuven Glick & Ramon Moreno & Mark Spiegel, 2001. "Financial crises in emerging markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.23.
  15. Ranil Salgado & Luca Antonio Ricci & Francesco Caramazza, 2000. "Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 00/55, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Libor Krkoska, 2001. "Assessing Macroeconomic Vulnerability in Central Europe," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 41-55.
  18. Hali J. Edison, 2000. "Do indicators of financial crises work? an evaluation of an early warning system," International Finance Discussion Papers 675, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
  20. Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August.
  21. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  22. Ranil Salgado & Jahangir Aziz & Francesco Caramazza, 2000. "Currency Crises: In Search of Common Elements," IMF Working Papers 00/67, International Monetary Fund.
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