Inflation Expectations: Does the Market Beat Professional Forecasts?
The present paper compares expected inflation to (econometric) inflation forecasts based on a number of forecasting techniques from the literature using a panel of ten industrialized countries during the period of 1988 to 2007. To capture expected inflation we develop a recursive filtering algorithm which extracts unexpected inflation from real interest rate data, even in the presence of diverse risks and a potential Mundell-Tobin-effect. The extracted unexpected inflation is compared to the forecasting errors of ten econometric forecasts. Beside the standard AR(p) and ARMA(1,1) models, which are known to perform best on average, we also employ several Phillips curve based approaches, VAR, dynamic factor models and two simple model avering approaches.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2009|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Kleine Märkerstrasse 8, 06108 Halle (Saale)|
Phone: (0345) 7753-60
Fax: (0345) 7753-820
Web page: http://www.iwh-halle.de
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iwh:dispap:16-09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tobias Henning)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.