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The Importance of Estimation Uncertainty in a Multi-Rating Class Loan Portfolio

  • Henry Dannenberg

This article seeks to make an assessment of estimation uncertainty in a multi-rating class loan portfolio. Relationships are established between estimation uncertainty and parameters such as probability of default, intra- and inter-rating class correlation, degree of inhomogeneity, number of rating classes used, number of debtors and number of historical periods used for parameter estimations. In addition, by using an exemplary portfolio based on Moody’s ratings, it becomes clear that estimation uncertainty does indeed have an effect on interest rates.

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Paper provided by Halle Institute for Economic Research in its series IWH Discussion Papers with number 11.

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Date of creation: Jul 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iwh:dispap:11-11
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  1. Hanson, Samuel & Schuermann, Til, 2006. "Confidence intervals for probabilities of default," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2281-2301, August.
  2. Peter Christoffersen & Sílvia Gonçalves, 2004. "Estimation Risk in Financial Risk Management," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-15, CIRANO.
  3. Henry Dannenberg, 2010. "Berücksichtigung von Schätzunsicherheit bei der Kreditrisikobewertung Vergleich des Value at Risk der Verlustverteilung des Kreditrisikos bei Verwendung von Bootstrapping und einem asymptotischen Ansa," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 43(4), pages 559–585.
  4. Michael B. Gordy, 1998. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Nikola Tarashev, 2009. "Measuring portfolio credit risk correctly: why parameter uncertainty matters," BIS Working Papers 280, Bank for International Settlements.
  6. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Hansen, Ernst & Lando, David, 2004. "Confidence sets for continuous-time rating transition probabilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2575-2602, November.
  7. Hamerle, Alfred & Knapp, Michael & Liebig, Thilo & Wildenauer, Nicole, 2005. "Incorporating prediction and estimation risk in point-in-time credit portfolio models," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2005,13, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  8. Kerkhof, F.L.J. & Melenberg, B. & Schumacher, J.M., 2002. "Model Risk and Regulatory Capital," Discussion Paper 2002-27, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  9. Loffler, Gunter, 2003. "The effects of estimation error on measures of portfolio credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1427-1453, August.
  10. Sibbertsen, Philipp & Stahl, Gerhard & Luedtke, Corinna, 2008. "Measuring Model Risk," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-409, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
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