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The European Commission’s Scoreboard of Macroeconomic Imbalances – The Impact of Preferences on an Early Warning System

  • Tobias Knedlik

The European Commission’s Scoreboard of Macroeconomic Imbalances is a rare case of a publicly released early warning system (EWS). That allows for analyzing the preferences of the involved politicians with regard to the two potential errors of an EWS – missing a crisis and issuing a false alarm. This is done for the first time for EWS in general by using a standard signals approach including a preference-based optimization approach to set thresholds. It is shown that in general, the thresholds of the scoreboard are set low (resulting in more alarm signals) as compared to a neutral stand.

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Paper provided by Halle Institute for Economic Research in its series IWH Discussion Papers with number 10.

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Date of creation: Nov 2012
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Handle: RePEc:iwh:dispap:10-12
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  1. Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Working Paper Series 0145, European Central Bank.
  2. Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2008. "Low probability, high impact: Policy making and extreme events," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 111-121.
  3. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2011. "Quasi real time early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: A role for global liquidity," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 520-533, September.
  4. Knedlik, Tobias & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2011. "Macroeconomic Imbalances as Indicators for Debt Crises in Europe," IWH Discussion Papers 12/2011, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  5. Hali J. Edison, 2000. "Do indicators of financial crises work? an evaluation of an early warning system," International Finance Discussion Papers 675, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Laffont, Jean-Jacques, 2001. "Incentives and Political Economy," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199248681, December.
  8. repec:zbw:iwhdps:3-12 is not listed on IDEAS
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