IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Responses of international stock markets to oil price surges: a regimeswitching perspective

  • Rania Jammazi
  • Duc Khuong Nguyen

We propose an enhanced regime-switching model to investigate the relationships between oil price surges and stock market cycles in five oil-dependent countries over the period from January 1989 to December 2007. Our model accounts for the joint effects of the WTI (West Texas Intermediate) and Brent oil markets and allows to simultaneously capture asymmetry, volatility persistence and regime shifts contained in the underlying financial data. We find that stock market returns strongly exhibit a regime-switching behavior, but they react differently to the increases in the price of oil. More precisely, the conditional volatility of studied stock markets during the bear market phases is found to be less affected by oil price shocks than during the bull market phases. Whether the effects of oil shocks are positive and negative depends greatly on the degree of reliance on imported oil, the share of the cost of oil in the national income and the degree of improvement in energy efficiency of a given country. Finally, the relatively opposite effects of the WTI and Brent oil markets suggest the potential of substitution between them as well as the necessity of a diversification strategy of oil supply sources.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.ipag.fr/wp-content/uploads/recherche/WP/IPAG_WP_2014_080.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Department of Research, Ipag Business School in its series Working Papers with number 2014-080.

as
in new window

Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 06 Jan 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-080
Contact details of provider: Postal: 184 Boulevard Saint-Germain, 75006 Paris
Phone: 33 1 53 63 36 00
Web page: http://www.ipag.fr

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Shawkat M. Hammoudeh & Bradley T. Ewing & Mark A. Thompson, 2008. "Threshold Cointegration Analysis of Crude Oil Benchmarks," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 79-96.
  2. Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2001. "Oil price shocks, stock market, economic activity and employment in Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 511-532, September.
  3. Shigeki Ono, 2011. "Oil Price Shocks and Stock Markets in BRICs," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 8(1), pages 29-45, June.
  4. Kilian, Lutz & Park, Cheolbeom, 2007. "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the U.S. Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6166, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
  6. Bachmeier, Lance, 2008. "Monetary policy and the transmission of oil shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1738-1755, December.
  7. James D. Hamilton, 2010. "Causes and consequences of the oil shock of 2007–08," CQER Working Paper 2009-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  8. Sari, Ramazan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Soytas, Ugur, 2010. "Dynamics of oil price, precious metal prices, and exchange rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 351-362, March.
  9. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-34, April.
  10. Cong, Rong-Gang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Jiao, Jian-Lin & Fan, Ying, 2008. "Relationships between oil price shocks and stock market: An empirical analysis from China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3544-3553, September.
  11. Jammazi, Rania & Aloui, Chaker, 2010. "Wavelet decomposition and regime shifts: Assessing the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market returns," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1415-1435, March.
  12. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
  13. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2008. "Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 856-888, May.
  14. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. " Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-91, June.
  15. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2010. "Modelling the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 356-361, January.
  16. Javier F. Mory, 1993. "Oil Prices and Economic Activity: Is the Relationship Symmetric?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 151-162.
  17. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "Specification testing in Markov-switching time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 127-157, January.
  18. Kiseok Lee & Shawn Ni & Ronald A. Ratti, 1995. "Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Price Variability," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 39-56.
  19. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-44, June.
  20. J. Isaac Miller & Ronald Ratti, 2008. "Crude Oil and Stock Markets: Stability, Instability, and Bubbles," Working Papers 0810, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised 20 Jan 2009.
  21. Rania Jammazi, 2014. "Oil Shock Transmission to Stock Market Returns: Wavelet Multivariate Markov Switching GARCH Approach," Working Papers 2014-197, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  22. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2008. "Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Booms in an Oil Exporting Country," Working Paper 2008/16, Norges Bank.
  23. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
  24. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "Volatility regimes, asymmetric basis effects and forecasting performance: An empirical investigation of the WTI crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 294-306.
  25. Basher, Syed A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2006. "Oil price risk and emerging stock markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 224-251, December.
  26. Walid, Chkili & Chaker, Aloui & Masood, Omar & Fry, John, 2011. "Stock market volatility and exchange rates in emerging countries: A Markov-state switching approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 272-292, September.
  27. Maheu, John M & McCurdy, Thomas H, 2000. "Identifying Bull and Bear Markets in Stock Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 100-112, January.
  28. Nandha, Mohan & Faff, Robert, 2008. "Does oil move equity prices? A global view," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 986-997, May.
  29. Boyer, M. Martin & Filion, Didier, 2007. "Common and fundamental factors in stock returns of Canadian oil and gas companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 428-453, May.
  30. Vo, Minh T., 2009. "Regime-switching stochastic volatility: Evidence from the crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 779-788, September.
  31. Nathan S. Balke & Stephen P.A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel, 2010. "Oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity: an international perspective," Working Papers 1003, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  32. Aloui, Chaker & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Njeh, Hassen, 2012. "Assessing the impacts of oil price fluctuations on stock returns in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2686-2695.
  33. Turner, C.M. & Startz, R. & Nelson, C.R., 1989. "The Markov Model Of Heteroskedasticity, Risk And Learning In The Stock Market," Working Papers 89-01, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  34. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2008. "Do Structural Oil-Market Shocks Affect Stock Prices?," Working papers 2008-51, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  35. George Hondroyiannis & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2001. "Macroeconomic influences on the stock market," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 33-49, March.
  36. Fong, Wai Mun & See, Kim Hock, 2002. "A Markov switching model of the conditional volatility of crude oil futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 71-95, January.
  37. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
  38. Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
  39. Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
  40. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2011. "New evidence on oil price and firm returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3253-3262.
  41. Qiao, Zhuo & Smyth, Russell & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2008. "Volatility switching and regime interdependence between information technology stocks 1995-2005," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 139-156.
  42. Maghyereh, A., 2004. "Oil Price Shocks and Emerging Stock Markets: A Generalized VAR Approach," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(2), pages 27-40.
  43. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2010. "Oil Prices, Stock Markets and Portfolio Investment: Evidence from Sector Analysis in Europe over the Last Decade," Working Papers hal-00507823, HAL.
  44. Lardic, Sandrine & Mignon, Valérie, 2008. "Oil prices and economic activity: An asymmetric cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 847-855, May.
  45. El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Jouini, Jamel & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Volatility spillovers between oil prices and stock sector returns: Implications for portfolio management," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1387-1405.
  46. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  47. Zhang, Dayong, 2008. "Oil shock and economic growth in Japan: A nonlinear approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2374-2390, September.
  48. Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2006.29, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  49. Christos Kollias & Catherine Kyrtsou & Stephanos Papadamou, 2011. "The Effects of Terrorism and War on the Oil and Prices Stock Indices Relationship," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 57, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  50. Sadorsky, Perry, 2008. "Assessing the impact of oil prices on firms of different sizes: Its tough being in the middle," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3854-3861, October.
  51. Mohan Nandha & Robert Brooks, 2009. "Oil prices and transport sector returns: an international analysis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 393-409, November.
  52. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2009. "Do macroeconomic variables have regime-dependent effects on stock return dynamics? Evidence from the Markov regime switching model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1283-1299, November.
  53. Vivoda, Vlado, 2009. "Diversification of oil import sources and energy security: A key strategy or an elusive objective?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4615-4623, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-080. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ingmar Schumacher)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.