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Managing the Exchange Rate Consequences of an MDG-Related Scale-up in HIV/AIDS Financing

  • John Serieux

    ()

    (Assistant Professor, Dept. of Economics, University of Manitoba)

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    This Conference Paper by John Serieux was presented at the ?Global Conference on Gearing Macroeconomic Policies to Reverse the HIV/AIDS Epidemic?, jointly organized by UNDP?s HIV/AIDS Group and IPC and held in Brasilia, November 2006. It is part of an IPC-supported Research Programme on ?Macroeconomic Policies to Combat HIV/AIDS?. The paper argues that any adverse macroeconomic effects of a large scaling up of HIV/AIDS financing can be prevented by proper exchange-rate management, including frontloading aid, building up a modest stock of foreign exchange reserves and refraining from over-reacting to initial moderate increases in inflation and the value of the exchange rate.

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    File URL: http://www.ipc-undp.org/pub/IPCConferencePaper1.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2007
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    Paper provided by International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth in its series Conference Paper with number 1.

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    Length: 45
    Date of creation: Mar 2007
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: Published by UNDP - International Poverty Centre, March 2007, pages 1-45
    Handle: RePEc:ipc:cpaper:1
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.ipc-undp.org
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    1. Michael Clemens & Charles Kenny & Todd Moss, 2004. "The Trouble with the MDGs: Confronting Expectations of Aid and Development Success," Development and Comp Systems 0405011, EconWPA.
    2. Arellano, Cristina & Bulír, Ales & Lane, Timothy & Lipschitz, Leslie, 2009. "The dynamic implications of foreign aid and its variability," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 87-102, January.
    3. Mwanza Nkusu, 2004. "Aid and the Dutch Disease in Low-Income Countries; Informed Diagnoses for Prudent Prognoses," IMF Working Papers 04/49, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Khalid Sekkat & Aristomène Varoudakis, 1998. "Exchange-Rate Management and Manufactured Exports in Sub-Saharan Africa," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 134, OECD Publishing.
    5. Pallage, Stephane & Robe, Michel A, 2001. "Foreign Aid and the Business Cycle," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 641-72, November.
    6. McDonald, Scott & Roberts, Jennifer, 2006. "AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 228-250, June.
    7. Ale Bulir & A. Javier Hamann, 2003. "Aid Volatility: An Empirical Assessment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(1), pages 4.
    8. Christopher S. Adam & David L. Bevan, 2006. "Aid and the Supply Side: Public Investment, Export Performance, and Dutch Disease in Low-Income Countries," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 20(2), pages 261-290.
    9. Michael Boozer & Gustav Ranis & Frances Stewart & Tavneet Suri, 2003. "Paths to Success: The Relationship Between Human Development and Economic Growth," Working Papers 874, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    10. Arndt, Channing, 2006. "HIV/AIDS, human capital, and economic growth prospects for Mozambique," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 477-489, July.
    11. Bourguignon, Fran.ois & Sundberg, Mark, 2006. "Absorptive Capacity and Achieving the MDGs," Working Paper Series RP2006/47, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A, 1999. "External Aid: Help or Hindrance to Export Orientation in Africa?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 8(4), pages 578-616, December.
    13. Philip R. Lane & Aaron Tornell, 1999. "The Voracity Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 22-46, March.
    14. Arvind Subramanian & Raghuram Rajan, 2005. "What Undermines Aid's Impacton Growth?," IMF Working Papers 05/126, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-48, December.
    16. Ardeshir Sepehri & Saeed Moshiri, 2004. "Inflation-Growth Profiles Across Countries: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 191-207.
    17. Markus Haacker, 2002. "The Economic Consequences of HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa," IMF Working Papers 02/38, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Ranis, Gustav & Stewart, Frances & Ramirez, Alejandro, 2000. "Economic Growth and Human Development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 197-219, February.
    19. C Arndt & J D Lewis, 2000. "The Macro Implications of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: A Preliminary Assessment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 380-392, December.
    20. Bryceson, Deborah Fahy & Fonseca, Jodie, 2006. "Risking death for survival: Peasant responses to hunger and HIV/AIDS in Malawi," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1654-1666, September.
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