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Subjective Health Expectations

  • Juergen Jung

    ()

    (Indiana University Bloomington)

In this paper, I derive subjective health expectations curves using the RAND-HRS data. These curves can be used in the estimation of structural life-cycle models. I first construct "health tables" from the RAND-HRS data and update subjective health expectations with information from these tables. The Bayesian updating mechanism corrects for focal point responses and reporting errors of the original health expectations variable. In addition, I test the quality of the health expectations measure and describe its correlation with various health indicators and other individual characteristics. I find that subjective health expectations do contain additional information that is not incorporated in subjective mortality expectations and that the rational expectations assumption cannot be rejected for subjective health expectations.

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File URL: http://www.iub.edu/~caepr/RePEc/PDF/2008/CAEPR2008-016.pdf
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Paper provided by Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington in its series Caepr Working Papers with number 2008-016.

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Length: 71 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:inu:caeprp:2008-016
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  1. Mario Monti, 2004. "Introduction," Chapters, in: The Economics of Antitrust and Regulation in Telecommunications, chapter 1 Edward Elgar.
  2. Hurd, Michael D, 1989. "Mortality Risk and Bequests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 779-813, July.
  3. Todd Elder, 2007. "Subjective Survival Probabilities in the Health and Retirement Study: Systematic Biases and Predictive Validity," Working Papers wp159, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  4. Alexander Ludwig & Alexander Zimper, 2008. "A parsimonious model of subjective life expectancy," Working Papers 74, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  5. Li Gan & Michael D. Hurd & Daniel L. McFadden, 2005. "Individual Subjective Survival Curves," NBER Chapters, in: Analyses in the Economics of Aging, pages 377-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. L. Randall Wray & Stephanie Bell, 2004. "Introduction," Chapters, in: Credit and State Theories of Money, chapter 1 Edward Elgar.
  7. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, 09.
  8. Hugo Benitez-Silva & Debra S. Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Tom Muench, 2005. "Expectations in Micro Data: Rationality Revisited," Department of Economics Working Papers 05-04, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
  9. Mario Cleves & William W. Gould & Roberto G. Gutierrez & Yulia Marchenko, 2010. "An Introduction to Survival Analysis Using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, edition 3, number saus3, November.
  10. V. Kerry Smith & Donald H. Taylor & Frank A. Sloan, 2001. "Longevity Expectations and Death: Can People Predict Their Own Demise?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1126-1134, September.
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