Performance Measurement under Rational International Overpromising Regimes
Overpromising remains ingrained in international agreements, clouding their expected aggregate outcomes and how to assess the Parties’ performance. This paper provides a theory-based explanation and evaluation of this regime and its consequences, with an empirical application to the Kyoto Protocol. It shows (1) overpromising to be part of a sustainable strategy for electoral success, and (2) there are common determinants of the countries’ overpromising values that characterize the group regime. (3) Targets need to be adjusted for regression-predicted overpromising to yield rationally-expected outcomes. (4) Individual countries’ performance is best identified by deviations of outcomes from their adjusted, not the agreed, targets.
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- World Bank & International Monetary Fund, 2006. "Global Monitoring Report 2006 : Millennium Development Goals - Strengthening Mutual Accountability, Aid, Trade, and Governance," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6970, December.
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- Carsten Helm & Detlef Sprinz, 2000. "Measuring the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 44(5), pages 630-652, October.
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