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Has India emerged? Business cycle stylized facts from a transitioning economy

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  • Chetan Ghate

    (Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi)

  • Radhika Pandey

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

  • Ila Patnaik

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive set of stylised facts for business cycles in India from 1950 - 2009. We find that the nature of the business cycle has changed dramatically after India's liberalisation reforms in 1991. In particular, after the the mid 1990s, the properties of India's business cycle has moved closer in key respects to select advanced countries. This is consistent with India's structural transformation from a pre-dominantly agricultural and planned developing economy to a more market based industrial-income economy. We also identify in what respects the behaviour of the Indian business cycle is different from that of other advanced economies, and closer to that of other less developed economies. This is the first exercise of this kind to generate an exhaustive set of stylised facts for India using both annual and quarterly data.

Suggested Citation

  • Chetan Ghate & Radhika Pandey & Ila Patnaik, 2011. "Has India emerged? Business cycle stylized facts from a transitioning economy," Indian Statistical Institute, Planning Unit, New Delhi Discussion Papers 11-05, Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi, India.
  • Handle: RePEc:ind:isipdp:11-05
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    Cited by:

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    2. Nomoto, Takaaki, 2016. "Rainfall Variability and Macroeconomic Performance:A Case Study of India, 1952–2013," MPRA Paper 71976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Patnaik, Ila & Pundit, Madhavi, 2013. "Emerging economy business cycles: Financial integration and terms of trade shocks," Working Papers 13/120, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    4. Patnaik, Ila & Pundit, Madhavi, 2014. "Is India's Long-Term Trend Growth Declining?," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 424, Asian Development Bank.
    5. Vaz, Eric, 2013. "The Spatial Business Landscape of India," Journal of Spatial and Organizational Dynamics, Cinturs - Research Centre for Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, University of Algarve, vol. 1(4), pages 241-253.
    6. Radhika Pandey & Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2019. "Business Cycle Measurement in India," Societies and Political Orders in Transition, in: Sergey Smirnov & Ataman Ozyildirim & Paulo Picchetti (ed.), Business Cycles in BRICS, pages 121-152, Springer.
    7. Niaz Ali & Muhammad Tariq & Asia Baig, 2017. "A Statistical Investigation of Business Cycles Characteristics in Pakistan," Global Economics Review, Humanity Only, vol. 2(1), pages 73-84, December.
    8. Gupta,Poonam - DECOS, 2016. "Capital flows and central banking : the Indian experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7569, The World Bank.
    9. Samaresh Bardhan & Vivekananda Mukherjee, 2016. "Bank-specific determinants of nonperforming assets of Indian banks," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 483-498, July.
    10. De, Supriyo, 2014. "Intangible capital and growth in the ‘new economy’: Implications of a multi-sector endogenous growth model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 25-42.
    11. Das, Sudipta, 2015. "Empirical evidence of conditional asset pricing in the Indian stock market," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 225-239.
    12. Erumban, Abdul Azeez & Das, Deb Kusum & Aggarwal, Suresh & Das, Pilu Chandra, 2019. "Structural change and economic growth in India," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 186-202.
    13. Patnaik, Ila & Mittal, Shalini & Pandey, Radhika, 2019. "Examining the trade-off between price and financial stability in India," Working Papers 19/248, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    14. Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2019. "Measuring business cycle conditions in India," Working Papers 19/269, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    15. Patnaik, Ila & Pundit, Madhavi, 2016. "Where is India's Growth Headed?," Working Papers 16/159, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    16. Ila Patnaik, 2016. "Where is India’s Growth Headed?," Working Papers id:8436, eSocialSciences.
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    Keywords

    Macroeconomics; Real Business Cycles; Emerging Market DSGE Models; Volatility and Growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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