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Has India emerged? Business cycle stylized facts from a transitioning economy

  • Chetan Ghate

    ()

    (Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi)

  • Radhika Pandey

    ()

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

  • Ila Patnaik

    ()

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

This paper presents a comprehensive set of stylised facts for business cycles in India from 1950 - 2009. We find that the nature of the business cycle has changed dramatically after India's liberalisation reforms in 1991. In particular, after the the mid 1990s, the properties of India's business cycle has moved closer in key respects to select advanced countries. This is consistent with India's structural transformation from a pre-dominantly agricultural and planned developing economy to a more market based industrial-income economy. We also identify in what respects the behaviour of the Indian business cycle is different from that of other advanced economies, and closer to that of other less developed economies. This is the first exercise of this kind to generate an exhaustive set of stylised facts for India using both annual and quarterly data.

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File URL: http://www.isid.ac.in/~pu/dispapers/dp11-05.pdf
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Paper provided by Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi, India in its series Indian Statistical Institute, Planning Unit, New Delhi Discussion Papers with number 11-05.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: May 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ind:isipdp:11-05
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  12. Rachel Male, 2010. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Revisiting the Stylised Facts," Working Papers 664, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  13. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 251-85, May.
  14. César Calderón & Rodrigo Fuentes, 2006. "Complementarities between Institutions and Openness in Economic Development: Evidence for a Panel of Countries," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(127), pages 49-80.
  15. Hilde Christiane BjÛrnland, 2000. "Detrending methods and stylized facts of business cycles in Norway - an international comparison," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 369-392.
  16. Jayaram, Shruthi & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2009. "Examining the decoupling hypothesis for India," Working Papers 09/61, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  17. Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2071-2088, December.
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