Deterrence, preemption and panic: A Common-enemy problem of terrorism
We develop a game-theoretic analysis of terrorism that examines the interaction between a terrorist organization and multiple target countries, and considers both pre-emption and deterrence as counterterrorist policies. The damage from terror includes not only the material cost of fatality, injury and loss of property, but also the resultant fear. The fear-effect leads to different kinds of equilibria and implications for counter-terrorism policies. In particular, the model identifies conditions under which greater pre-emption may be the rational response to an increase in terrorism, i.e., it analyzes the merit of the dictum: "offense is the best defense." Further, it examines the characteristics of cooperative behavior among target countries in dealing with the threat of terrorism.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2008|
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- Mirza, Daniel & Verdier, Thierry, 2007.
"International Trade, Security and Transnational Terrorism: Theory and Empirics,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6174, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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- Abadie, Alberto & Gardeazabal, Javier, 2008.
"Terrorism and the world economy,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 1-27, January.
- Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
- Das Satya P & Lahiri Sajal, 2006. "A Strategic Analysis of Terrorist Activity and Counter-Terrorism Policies," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-28, June.
- Hausken, Kjell, 2008. "Whether to attack a terrorist's resource stock today or tomorrow," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 548-564, November.
- Cárceles-Poveda, Eva & Tauman, Yair, 2011. "A strategic analysis of the war against transnational terrorism," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 49-65, January.
- Gary S. Becker & Yona Rubinstein, 2011. "Fear and the Response to Terrorism: An Economic Analysis," CEP Discussion Papers dp1079, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Todd Sandler & Kevin Siqueira, 2006. "Global terrorism: deterrence versus pre-emption," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1370-1387, November.
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