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Market entry costs, producer heterogeneity and export dynamics

  • Sanghamitra Das

    ()

    (Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi)

  • Mark J. Roberts

    ()

    (Pennsylvania State University and NBER)

  • James R. Tybout

    ()

    (Pennsylvania State University and NBER)

As the exchange rate, foreign demand, production costs and export promotion policies evolve, manufacturing firms are continually faced with two issues: whether to be an exporter, and if so, how much to export. we develop a dynamic structural model of export supply that characterizes these two decisions and estimate the model using plant-level panel data on Colombian chemical producers. The model embodies uncertainty, plant-level heterogeneity in export profits, and sunk entry costs for plants breaking into foreign markets. Our estimates, and the simulation exercises that they support, yield several implications. First, entry costs are typically large, but vary greatly across proucers. second, there is substantial cross-plant heterogeneity in gross expected export profit streams. Third, these large entry costs make expectations about future exporting conditions important for many producers, so changes in the exchange rate regime that are credible induce much more entry than those that are not. Fourth, however, most of the entry and exit takes place among marginal exporters who contribute little to aggregate export revenues. Finally, subsidies on export earnings have much large impact on export revenues(per dollar spent)than subsidies that reduce the entry costs faced by new exporters.

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File URL: http://www.isid.ac.in/~pu/dispapers/dp03-10.pdf
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Paper provided by Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi, India in its series Indian Statistical Institute, Planning Unit, New Delhi Discussion Papers with number 03-10.

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Length: 56 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ind:isipdp:03-10
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  1. Bernard, Andrew B. & Bradford Jensen, J., 1999. "Exceptional exporter performance: cause, effect, or both?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-25, February.
  2. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-38, June.
  3. Andrew B. Bernard & Joachim Wagner, 1998. "Export Entry and Exit by German Firms," NBER Working Papers 6538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Das, Sanghamitra, 1992. "A Micro-econometric Model of Capital Utilization and Retirement: The Case of the U.S. Cement Industry," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 277-97, April.
  5. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January.
  6. J Bradford Jensen & Andrew B Bernard, 2001. "Why Some Firms Export," Working Papers 01-05, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  7. Andrew B. Bernard & Jonathan Eaton & J. Bradford Jensen & Samuel Kortum, 2000. "Plants and Productivity in International Trade," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 105, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
  8. John Rust, 1997. "Using Randomization to Break the Curse of Dimensionality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 487-516, May.
  9. Baldwin, Richard & Krugman, Paul, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 635-54, November.
  10. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1995. "Measuring the Intensity of Competition in Export Markets," NBER Working Papers 5226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Campa, Jose M., 2000. "Exchange rates and trade: How important is hysteresis in trade?," IESE Research Papers D/427, IESE Business School.
  12. Sofronis Clerides & Saul Lach & James Tybout, 1996. "Is "Learning-by-Exporting" Important? Micro-Dynamic Evidence from Colombia, Mexico and Morocco," NBER Working Papers 5715, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Roberts, Mark J & Tybout, James R, 1997. "The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 545-64, September.
  14. Hans M. Amman & David A. Kendrick, . "Computational Economics," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number comp1.
  15. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
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