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How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices?

  • Hong Liang
  • C. John McDermott
  • Paul Cashin

This paper examines the persistence of shocks to world commodity prices, using monthly IMF data on primary commodities between 1957–98. We find that shocks to commodity prices are typically long–lasting and the variability of the persistence of price shocks is quite wide. The paper also discusses the implications of these findings for national and international schemes to stabilize earnings from commodity exports and finds that if price shocks are long–lived, then the cost of stabilization schemes will likely exceed any associated smoothing benefits.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 99/80.

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Length: 54
Date of creation: 01 Jun 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:99/80
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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Peter Wickham, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 175-213, June.
  2. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1992. "Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: A Re-examination," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(3), pages 661-80, August.
  3. Javier Le�N & Raimundo Soto, 1997. "Structural Breaks And Long-Run Trends In Commodity Prices," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 347-366.
  4. Stock, James H., 1991. "Confidence intervals for the largest autoregressive root in U.S. macroeconomic time series," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 435-459, December.
  5. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 236-261, June.
  6. Cuddington, John T & Urzua, Carlos M, 1989. "Trends and Cycles in the Net Barter Terms of Trade: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 426-42, June.
  7. Helpman, Elhanan, 1981. "An Exploration in the Theory of Exchange-Rate Regimes," Scholarly Articles 3445091, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  8. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
  9. Gilbert, Christopher L., 1996. "International Commodity Agreements: An obituary notice," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 1-19, January.
  10. Bardsley, Peter, 1994. "The Collapse of the Australian Wool Reserve Price Scheme," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(426), pages 1087-1105, September.
  11. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
  12. Reinhart, Carmen & Borenzstein, Eduardo & Khan, Mohsin & Wickham, Peter, 1994. "The Behavior of Non-Oil Commodity Prices," MPRA Paper 8198, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1990. "On The Behavior of Commodity Prices," NBER Working Papers 3439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
  15. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Exactly Median-Unbiased Estimation of First Order Autoregressive/Unit Root Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 139-65, January.
  16. Beckerman, Wilfred & Jenkinson, Tim, 1986. "What Stopped the Inflation? Unemployment of Commodity Prices?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(381), pages 39-54, March.
  17. Catherine L. Mann, 1986. "Prices, profit margins, and exchange rates," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jun, pages 366-379.
  18. DeJong, David N, et al, 1992. "Integration versus Trend Stationarity in Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 423-33, March.
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