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The Egyptian Stock Market; Efficiency Tests and Volatility Effects

Author

Listed:
  • Mauro Mecagni
  • Maged Sawky Sourial

Abstract

The paper examines the behavior of stock returns in the Egyptian stock exchange, the efficiency of the market in pricing securities, and the relationship between returns and conditional volatility. GARCH(p,q)-M models estimated for the four best known daily indices indicate significant departures from the efficient market hypothesis; the tendency for returns to exhibit volatility clustering; and a significant positive link between risk and returns, which was significantly affected during the market downturn that followed the introduction of circuit breakers in the form of symmetric price limits on individual shares.

Suggested Citation

  • Mauro Mecagni & Maged Sawky Sourial, 1999. "The Egyptian Stock Market; Efficiency Tests and Volatility Effects," IMF Working Papers 99/48, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:99/48
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alagidede, Paul & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2009. "Modelling stock returns in Africa's emerging equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 1-11, March.
    2. repec:rss:jnljef:v3i4p1 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Tran MANH Tuyen, 2011. "Modeling Volatility Using GARCH Models: Evidence from Vietnam," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 1935-1942.
    4. Ekaterini Tsouma, 2007. "Stock return dynamics and stock market interdependencies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(10), pages 805-825.
    5. Mazin A. M. Al Janabi & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Manuchehr Irandoust, 2010. "Modeling Time-Varying Volatility and Expected Returns: Evidence from the GCC and MENA Regions," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 46(5), pages 39-47, September.
    6. M. Kabir Hassan & Anisul M. Islam & Syed Abul Basher, 2000. "Market Efficiency, Time-Varying Volatility and Equity Returns in Bangladesh Stock Market," Working Papers 2002_6, York University, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2002.
    7. Ansotegui, Carmen & Bassiouny, Aliaa & Tooma, Eskandar, 2013. "The proof is in the pudding: Arbitrage is possible in limited emerging markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 342-357.
    8. Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas & Lucey, Brian M., 2008. "Efficiency in emerging markets--Evidence from the MENA region," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 94-105, February.
    9. Ezzat, Hassan, 2012. "The Application of GARCH and EGARCH in Modeling the Volatility of Daily Stock Returns During Massive Shocks: The Empirical Case of Egypt," MPRA Paper 50530, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Abdmoulah, Walid, 2010. "Testing the evolving efficiency of Arab stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 25-34, January.
    11. Léonce Ndikumana, 2003. "Capital Flows, Capital Account Regimes, and Foreign Exchange Rate Regimes in Africa," Working Papers wp55, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    12. Arshad, Shaista & Rizvi, Syed Aun R. & Ghani, Gairuzazmi Mat & Duasa, Jarita, 2016. "Investigating stock market efficiency: A look at OIC member countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 402-413.
    13. Keith Jefferis & Pako Thupayagale, 2008. "Long Memory In Southern African Stock Markets," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(3), pages 384-398, September.
    14. Ghassan Omet & Mohammad Khasawneh & Jamal Khasawneh, 2002. "Efficiency tests and volatility effects: evidence from the Jordanian stock market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(12), pages 817-821.
    15. Alagidede, Paul, 2011. "Return behaviour in Africa's emerging equity markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 133-140, May.
    16. Billmeier, Andreas & Massa, Isabella, 2008. "Go long or short in pyramids? News from the Egyptian stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 949-970, December.

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