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Is Poland Ready for Inflation Targeting?

Author

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  • Peter F. Christoffersen
  • Robert F. Westcott

Abstract

Monetary policymakers in advanced transition economies such as Poland are increasingly interested in how inflation responds to changes in policy instruments and other economic forces. In this paper, measures of underlying CPI inflation based upon optimal trimming concepts are developed. The sensitivity of these CPI measures to changes in a set of 25 policy and economic variables is then studied via Granger causality tests and impulse responses and a multivariate model of CPI inflation developed. The results show that a core set of variables characterize one-period-ahead underlying inflation moderately well but that statistical linkages are not yet robust.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter F. Christoffersen & Robert F. Westcott, 1999. "Is Poland Ready for Inflation Targeting?," IMF Working Papers 99/41, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:99/41
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    Cited by:

    1. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2004. "The Information Content of the Natural Rate of Interest: The Case of Poland," Macroeconomics 0402007, EconWPA.
    2. Lyziak, Tomasz & Mackiewicz, Joanna & Stanislawska, Ewa, 2007. "Central bank transparency and credibility: The case of Poland, 1998-2004," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 67-87, March.
    3. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2004. "Money rules for the eurozone candidate countries," ZEI Working Papers B 05-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    4. Virginie Coudert & Jean-Patrick Yanitch, 2001. "Les stratégies de change des pays d'Europe Centrale et Orientale candidats à l'Union européenne," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 381-397.
    5. Lucio Vinhas de Souza, 2002. "Integrated monetary and exchange rate frameworks: are there empirical differences?," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2002-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Oct 2002.
    6. Bank for International Settlements, 2008. "Financial globalisation and emerging market capital flows," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 44, November.
    7. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2000. "A dynamic approach to inflation targeting in transition economies," ZEI Working Papers B 11-2000, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    8. Mark Hallerberg & Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, 2000. "The Political Business Cycles of EU Accession Countries," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-085/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    9. Gottschalk, Jan & Moore, David, 2001. "Implementing Inflation Targeting Regimes: The Case of Poland," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 24-39, March.
    10. Buiter, Willem H. & Grafe, Clemens, 2002. "Anchor, Float or Abandon Ship: Exchange Rate Regimes for Accession Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 3184, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Peter Backé & Jarko Fidrmuc & Thomas Reininger & Franz Schardax, 2002. "Price Dynamics in Central and Eastern European EU Accession," Working Papers 61, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    12. Virginie Coudert & Jean-Patrick Yanitch, 2001. "The Exchange Rate Strategies Adopted by the EU Accession Countries of Central and Eastern Europe," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 345-360.
    13. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, 2006. "The information content of the neutral rate of interest," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 14(2), pages 391-412, April.
    14. Lucjan T Orlowski, 2005. "Monetary Policy Adjustments on the Final Passage towards the Euro," Macroeconomics 0503022, EconWPA.
    15. Siklos, Pierre L. & Abel, Istvan, 2002. "Is Hungary ready for inflation targeting?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 309-333, December.
    16. Anca Tanasie & Cosmin Fratostiteanu, 2008. "Forecasting inflation and its determinants," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(10), pages 110-116, April.
    17. Koskinen, Juha-Pekka & Koivu, Tuuli & Chowdhury, Abdur, 2004. "Selecting inflation indicators under an inflation targeting regime : evidence from the MCL method," BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    18. Jerzy Pruski & Piotr Szpunar, 2008. "Capital flows and their implications for monetary and financial stability: the experience of Poland," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial globalisation and emerging market capital flows, volume 44, pages 403-421 Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Pelin Berkmen, 2002. "Measuring Core Inflation for Turkey - Trimmed Means Approach," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 2(2), pages 1-18.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Poland; leading indicators; inflation; inflation targeting; robust statistics; administered prices; price inflation; monetary policy instruments;

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