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Determinants of Ex-Ante Banking System Distress; A Macro-Micro Empirical Exploration of Some Recent Episodes

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  • Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo

Abstract

This paper empirically analyzes the contribution of microeconomic and macroeconomic factors in five recent episodes of banking system problems in the U.S. Southwest (1986–92), Northeast (1991–92), and California (1992–93); Mexico (1994–95); and Colombia (1982–87). The paper finds that a low capital equity and reserve coverage of problem loans ratio is a leading indicator of bank distress, signaling a high likelihood of near-term failure. Distress is shown to be a function of the same fundamental macro-micro sources of risk that determine bank failures. Focusing on distress has the advantage that the fragility of the banking system can be assessed before a crisis actually occurs.

Suggested Citation

  • Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo, 1999. "Determinants of Ex-Ante Banking System Distress; A Macro-Micro Empirical Exploration of Some Recent Episodes," IMF Working Papers 99/33, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:99/33
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    Keywords

    Financial crisis; Banking crisis; Banking sector fragility; banking; probability; banking system; bank failures; statistics;

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