IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates; Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework

  • Susana Garcia Cervero
  • J. Humberto Lopez
  • Enrique Alberola Ila
  • Angel J. Ubide

This paper presents a methodology for calculating bilateral equilibrium exchange rates for a panel of currencies in a way that guarantees global consistency. The methodology has three parts: a theoretical model that encompasses the balance of payments and the Balassa-Samuelson approaches to real exchange rate determination; an unobserved components decomposition in a cointegration framework that identifies a time-varying equilibrium real exchange rate; and an algebraic transformation that extracts bilateral equilibrium nominal rates. The results uncover that, by the start of Stage III of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the euro was significantly undervalued against the dollar and the pound, but overvalued against the yen. The paper also shows that the four major EMU currencies locked their parities with the euro at a rate close to equilibrium.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=3369
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 99/175.

as
in new window

Length: 43
Date of creation: 01 Dec 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:99/175
Contact details of provider: Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Mussa, Michael L., 1985. "Asset markets, exchange rates and the balance of payments," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 679-747 Elsevier.
  2. Quah, Danny, 1992. "The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identification and Some Theoretical Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 107-18, January.
  3. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  4. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  5. Ronald MacDonald & Tamim Bayoumi, 1998. "Deviations of Exchange Rates From Purchasing Power Parity; A Story Featuring Two Monetary Unions," IMF Working Papers 98/69, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, . "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
  7. Holger C. Wolf & Alberto Giovannini & Jose De Gregorio, 1994. "International Evidenceon Tradables and Nontradables Inflation," IMF Working Papers 94/33, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-294, December.
  9. Hamid Faruqee, 1994. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate; A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Working Papers 94/90, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Baxter, Marianne, 1994. "Real exchange rates and real interest differentials: Have we missed the business-cycle relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 5-37, February.
  11. Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February.
  12. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1991. "Structural Determinants of Real Exchange Rates and National Price Levels: Some Empirical Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 325-34, March.
  13. Enrique Alberola & Humberto López, 1999. "Internal and External Exchange Rate Equilibrium in a Cointegration Framework. An Application to the Spanish Peseta," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9916, Banco de Espa�a.
  14. Shiller, Robert J. & Perron, Pierre, 1985. "Testing the random walk hypothesis : Power versus frequency of observation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 381-386.
  15. Bernard, Andrew B & Jones, Charles I, 1996. "Comparing Apples to Oranges: Productivity Convergence and Measurement across Industries and Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1216-38, December.
  16. Parha Deb & Salim M. Darbar, 1999. "Linkages Among Asset Markets in the United States; Tests in a Bivariate Garch Framework," IMF Working Papers 99/158, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Joseph E. Gagnon, 1996. "Net foreign assets and equilibrium exchange rates: panel evidence," International Finance Discussion Papers 574, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  18. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17.
  19. Willem H. Buiter, 1983. "Predetermined and Non-Predetermined Variables in Rational Expectations Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Jacob A. Frenkel & Michael L. Mussa, 1984. "Asset Markets, Exchange Rates and the Balance of Payments," NBER Working Papers 1287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Maravall, Agustin, 1993. "Stochastic linear trends : Models and estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 5-37, March.
  22. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad Diba, 1996. "Relative Labor Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1985. "Purchasing Power Parity," NBER Working Papers 1591, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi, 1994. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 951, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  26. Louis Dorrance Johnston & Menzie David Chinn, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Levels, Productivity and Demand Shocks; Evidence From a Panel of 14 Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/66, International Monetary Fund.
  27. Pierse, R. G. & Snell, A. J., 1995. "Temporal aggregation and the power of tests for a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 333-345, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:99/175. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)

or (Hassan Zaidi)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.