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Interest Rate Arbitrage in Currency Baskets; Forecasting Weights and Measuring Risk

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  • Peter F. Christoffersen
  • Lorenzo Giorgianni

Abstract

When constructing hedged interest rate arbitrage portfolios for basket currencies, two issues arise: first, how are the unknown future basket weights optimally forecasted from past exchange rate data? And, second, how is risk—in terms of the conditional variance of expected profits from the interest rate arbitrage portfolio—appropriately measured when the basket weights are time-varying? Answers to these questions are provided within a time-varying parameter modeling framework estimated through the Kalman filter. An empirical application is devoted to the experience of the Thai baht currency basket (January 1992–February 1997).

Suggested Citation

  • Peter F. Christoffersen & Lorenzo Giorgianni, 1999. "Interest Rate Arbitrage in Currency Baskets; Forecasting Weights and Measuring Risk," IMF Working Papers 99/16, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:99/16
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    Cited by:

    1. Carsten Trenkler & Pentti Saikkonen & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2008. "Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Level Shift and Trend Break," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 331-358, March.
    2. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 2003. "Identifying the Common Component of International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 101-127, January.
    3. Danilo Mercurio & Costanza Torricelli, 2003. "Estimation and arbitrage opportunities for exchange rate baskets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(15), pages 1689-1698.
    4. Imad Moosa, 2011. "The profitability of interest arbitrage when the base currency is pegged to a basket," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 267-281, October.
    5. Christoffersen, Peter & Errunza, Vihang, 2000. "Towards a global financial architecture: capital mobility and risk management issues," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-20, May.
    6. Moosa, Imad A., 2011. "Exchange Rate Regime Shift in Reaction to a Changing Environment: A Case Study of Kuwait - Modifiche del regime dei tassi di cambio a seguito di modifiche nelle condizioni del sistema: il caso del Kuw," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 64(2), pages 237-255.
    7. Moosa, Imad A., 2011. "Exchange Rate Regime Shift in Reaction to a Changing Environment: A Case Study of Kuwait - Modifiche del regime dei tassi di cambio a seguito di modifiche nelle condizioni del sistema: il caso del Kuw," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 64(2), pages 237-255.

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