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Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in India

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  • Tim Callen
  • Dongkoo Chang

Abstract

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has moved away from a broad money target toward a “multiple indicators” approach to the conduct of monetary policy. In adopting such a framework, it is necessary to know which of the many potential indicators provide the most reliable and timely information on future developments in the target variable(s). This paper assesses which indicators provide the most useful information about future inflationary trends. It concludes that while the broad money target has been de-emphasized, developments in the monetary aggregates remain an important indicator of future inflation. The exchange rate and import prices are also relevant, particularly for inflation in the manufacturing sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Tim Callen & Dongkoo Chang, 1999. "Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in India," IMF Working Papers 99/119, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:99/119
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    Cited by:

    1. Warwick J. McKIBBIN, 2006. "Environmental Consequences of Rising Energy Use in China," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 1(1), pages 157-174.
    2. Partha Ray & Jorge Somnath Chatterjee, 2001. "The role of asset prices in Indian inflation in recent years: some conjectures," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries, volume 8, pages 131-150 Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Jagadish Prasad Sahu, 2013. "Inflation dynamics in India: A hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2634-2647.
    4. Bank for International Settlements, 2006. "Monetary policy in Asia: approaches and implementation," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 31.
    5. Michael Debabrata Patra & Partha Ray, 2010. "Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in India; An Empirical Exploration," IMF Working Papers 10/84, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Singh, B. Karan & Kanakaraj, A. & Sridevi, T.O., 2011. "Revisiting the empirical existence of the Phillips curve for India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 247-258, June.
    7. Ilker Domac, 2003. "Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Turkey," Working Papers 0306, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    8. Riccardo Cristadoro & Giovanni Veronese, 2011. "Policy Focus: Monetary policy in India: is something amiss?," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 166-190, September.
    9. Jeannine Bailliu & Daniel Garcés & Mark Kruger & Miguel Messmacher, 2003. "Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: The Case of Mexico," Staff Working Papers 03-17, Bank of Canada.
    10. N. Kundan Kishor, 2012. "Modeling Inflation In India: The Role Of Money," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 57(04), pages 1-19.
    11. Cindrella Shah & Nilesh Ghonasgi, 2016. "Determinants and Forecast of Price Level in India: a VAR Framework," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 14(1), pages 57-86, June.
    12. Raghbendra Jha, 2008. "Inflation targeting in India: issues and prospects," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 259-270.
    13. Jalil, Abdul & Tariq, Rabbia & Bibi, Nazia, 2014. "Fiscal deficit and inflation: New evidences from Pakistan using a bounds testing approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 120-126.
    14. Biswajit Maitra, 2016. "Inflation Dynamics in India: Relative Role of Structural and Monetary Factors," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 14(2), pages 237-255, December.
    15. Novikova Natalia & Volkov Dmitry, 2012. "Modelling core inflation in Ukraine in 2003-2012," EERC Working Paper Series 12/12e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    16. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2011. "The stability of the Phillips curve in India: Does the Lucas critique apply?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 528-539.
    17. Kaushik Bhattacharya, 2006. "Monetary policy approaches in India," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in Asia: approaches and implementation, volume 31, pages 74-102 Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Himanshu Joshi, 2010. "Assessment of inflationary expectations in India: a Markov chain Monte-Carlo based Gibbs sampling approach," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 213-225.
    19. Koffie Ben Nassar, 2005. "Money Demand and Inflation in Madagascar," IMF Working Papers 05/236, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; India; cointegration; monetary policy; monetary aggregates; money supply; price inflation;

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