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Leading Indicators of Banking Crises; Was Asia Different?


  • International Monetary Fund


This paper examines episodes of the banking system distress and crisis in a large sample of countries. The empirical results identify several macroeconomic and financial variables as useful leading indicators. The main macroeconomic indicators were of limited value in predicting the Asian crises; the best warning signs were proxies for the vulnerability of the banking and corporate sector. Full-blown banking crises are shown to be more associated with external developments, and domestic variables are the main leading indicators of severe but contained banking distress.

Suggested Citation

  • International Monetary Fund, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Banking Crises; Was Asia Different?," IMF Working Papers 98/91, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:98/91

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    References listed on IDEAS

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