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Inflation, Disinflation, and Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Atish R. Ghosh
  • Steven T Phillips

Abstract

Although few would doubt that very high inflation is bad for growth, there is much less agreement about moderate inflation’s effects. Using panel regressions and a nonlinear specification, this paper finds a statistically and economically significant negative relationship between inflation and growth. This relationship holds at all but the lowest inflation rates and is robust across various samples and specifications. The method of binary recursive trees identifies inflation as one the most important statistical determinants of growth. Finally, while there are short-run growth costs of disinflation, these are only relevant for the most severe disinflations, or when the initial inflation rate is well within the single-digit range.

Suggested Citation

  • Atish R. Ghosh & Steven T Phillips, 1998. "Inflation, Disinflation, and Growth," IMF Working Papers 98/68, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:98/68
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Vaona, A. & Schiavo, S., 2007. "Nonparametric and semiparametric evidence on the long-run effects of inflation on growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 452-458, March.
    2. Beja, Edsel Jr., 2007. "Win or Lose, it’s the policy we choose: Comparative economic performance of the inflation targeters," MPRA Paper 4833, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Sep 2007.
    3. Max Gillman & Mark N. Harris, 2004. "Inflation, Financial Development and Growth in Transition Countries," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 23/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    4. Max Gillman & Mark Harris & László Mátyás, 2002. "Inflation and Growth: Some Theory and Evidence," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 D5-1, International Conferences on Panel Data.
    5. Zhou, Ge, 2011. "Money and Long-run Growth," MPRA Paper 33765, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Gillman, Max & Harris, Mark N., 2008. "The Effect of Inflation on Growth: Evidence from a Panel of Transition Countries," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/25, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    7. W. Adrián Risso & Edgar J. Sánchez Carrera, 2010. "Análisis de cointegración y valores umbrales entre la inflación y el crecimiento económico en México: 1970-2007," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 77-98, November.
    8. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2005. "Inflation and Balanced-Path Growth with Alternative Payment Mechanisms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 247-270, January.
    9. Metin Ozdemir & Selim Tuzunturk, 2009. "Is price stability enough? Macroeconomic performance of inflation targeting in developing countries," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(4), pages 352-372.
    10. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Denzau, Arthur T. & Keil, Manfred W. & Sitthiyot, Thitithep & Willett, Thomas D., 2004. "When does inflation hurt economic growth? Different nonlinearities for different economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 519-532, September.
    11. Max Gillman & Mark N. Harris, 2004. "Inflation, Financial Development and Endogenous Growth," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 24/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    12. Ardeshir Sepehri & Saeed Moshiri, 2004. "Inflation-Growth Profiles Across Countries: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 191-207.
    13. Mark N. Harris & Max Gillman & László Mátyás, 2001. "The Negative Inflation-Growth Effect: Theory and Evidence," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2001n12, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    14. Bonilla, Eugenio Diaz, 2008. "Global macroeconomic developments and poverty:," IFPRI discussion papers 766, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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