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Multiple Equilibrium, Variability, and the Development Process

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  • Luis Carranza
  • José Enrique Galdón-Sánchez

Abstract

Per capita output is more volatile in middle-income economies than in both low-income and high-income economies. We examine this pattern in a two-period overlapping generations model with two productive sectors (a developed sector and a subsistence sector) and a credit sector. In the early and mature stages of development, there is a unique equilibrium, because labor and credit markets are cleared by a unique set of prices. In the middle stages of development, however, the model shows that markets can be cleared by a multiple set of prices. This multiplicity of equilibria arises as productive externalities are reflected in credit markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Carranza & José Enrique Galdón-Sánchez, 1998. "Multiple Equilibrium, Variability, and the Development Process," IMF Working Papers 98/62, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:98/62
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    1. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "The Changing Cyclical Variability of Economic Activity in the United States," NBER Chapters,in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 679-734 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Aumann, Robert J, 1987. "Correlated Equilibrium as an Expression of Bayesian Rationality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(1), pages 1-18, January.
    3. Banerjee, Abhijit V & Newman, Andrew F, 1993. "Occupational Choice and the Process of Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 274-298, April.
    4. Oded Galor & Joseph Zeira, 1993. "Income Distribution and Macroeconomics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(1), pages 35-52.
    5. Sorger, Gerhard, 1994. "On the Structure of Ramsey Equilibrium: Cycles, Indeterminacy, and Sunspots," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(5), pages 745-764, August.
    6. Cooper, Russell & Ejarque, Joao, 1995. "Financial intermediation and the Great Depression: a multiple equilibrium interpretation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 285-323, December.
    7. Parente, Stephen L & Prescott, Edward C, 1994. "Barriers to Technology Adoption and Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 298-321, April.
    8. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carranza, Luis & Galdon-Sanchez, Jose E., 2004. "Financial intermediation, variability and the development process," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 27-54, February.

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