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From Transition to Market: Evidence and Growth Prospects

  • Ratna Sahay
  • Stanley Fischer
  • Carlos A. Végh Gramont

This paper presents evidence on the behavior of output and inflation in the transition economies during 1992–95. A regression analysis explores the differences in output performance across the transition economies during this period. The paper then engages in a numerical, somewhat speculative, exercise to assess the long-run growth potential of the transition economies. It concludes that it should take about 20 years for the faster reformers to reach current OECD per capita levels.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 98/52.

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Length: 36
Date of creation: 01 Apr 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:98/52
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  1. Rebelo, S. & Vegh, C.A., 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," RCER Working Papers 405, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  2. Fischer, Stanley & Sahay, Ratna & Vegh, Carlos, 1996. "Stabilization and growth in transition economies: The early experience," MPRA Paper 20631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 1993. "International comparisons of educational attainment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 363-394, December.
  4. Easterly, William & Fischer, Stanley & DEC, 1994. "The Soviet economic decline : historical and republican data," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1284, The World Bank.
  5. Anders Åslund & Peter Boone & Simon Johnson, 1996. "How to Stabilize: Lessons from Post -communist Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 217-314.
  6. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October.
  7. International Monetary Fund, 1996. "Do Government Wage Cuts Close Budget Deficits? a Conceptual Framework for Developing Countries and Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 96/19, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Fischer, Stanley & Sahay, Ratna & Vegh, Carlos A, 1996. "Economies in Transition: The Beginnings of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 229-33, May.
  9. Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Vegh, 1996. "Inflation and stabilization in transition economies: An analytical interpretation of the evidence," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 75-108.
  10. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan, 1996. "From plan to market : patterns of transition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1564, The World Bank.
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