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The Relative Importance of Political and Economic Variables in Creditworthiness Ratings

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This study examines the relative importance of political and economic variables in the determination of a country’s standing in credit ratings provided by commercial rating agencies. It finds that creditworthiness appears to be determined primarily by economic variables. While including political events can improve the explanatory power of the regressions, the exclusion of political variables does not bias the parameter estimates for the effects of economic variables.

Suggested Citation

  • International Monetary Fund, 1998. "The Relative Importance of Political and Economic Variables in Creditworthiness Ratings," IMF Working Papers 98/46, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:98/46
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    Cited by:

    1. Bruno Ferreira Frascaroli & Luciano da Costa Silva & Osvaldo Cândido da Silva Filho, 2009. "Ratings of Sovereign Risk and the Macroeconomics Fundamentals of the countries: a Study Using Artificial Neural Networks," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 7(1), pages 73-106.
    2. World Bank, 2002. "The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia : Developing Exports to Promote Growth," World Bank Other Operational Studies 15422, The World Bank.
    3. repec:cii:cepiei:2015-q1-141-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Rosemarie Bröker Bone, 2005. "A Importância Dos Fundamentos Nos Ratings Soberanos Brasileiros, 1994-2002," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 037, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    5. Bussiere, Matthieu & Mulder, Christian, 2000. "Political Instability and Economic Vulnerability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 309-330, October.
    6. El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2017. "Why they keep missing: An empirical investigation of rational inattention of rating agencies," IWH Discussion Papers 1/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    7. Fuchs , Andreas & Gehring , Kai, 2013. "The Home Bias in Sovereign Ratings," Working Papers 0552, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    8. Alejandro Pena, 2000. "La calificación del riesgo soberano Análisis de sus determinantes," Documentos de trabajo 2000005, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    9. Manasse, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 2009. ""Rules of thumb" for sovereign debt crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 192-205, July.
    10. Pukthuanthong-Le, Kuntara & Elayan, Fayez A. & Rose, Lawrence C., 2007. "Equity and debt market responses to sovereign credit ratings announcement," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-83.
    11. C. E. Weller, 2001. "Financial Crises After Financial Liberalisation: Exceptional Circumstances or Structural Weakness?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 98-127.
    12. Luitel, Prabesh & Vanpée, Rosanne & De Moor, Lieven, 2016. "Pernicious effects: How the credit rating agencies disadvantage emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 286-298.
    13. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Julio Nogués & Martín Grandes, 2001. "COUNTRY RISK: Economic Policy, Contagion Effect or Political noise?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 4, pages 125-162, May.
    15. Hammer, P.L. & Kogan, A. & Lejeune, M.A., 2006. "Modeling country risk ratings using partial orders," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 836-859, December.
    16. Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Alfredo Mario Leone & Mahinder Singh Gill & Owen Evens, 2000. "Macroprudential Indicators of Financial System Soundness," IMF Occasional Papers 192, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Andres Vesilind & Ingrid Toming & Raoul Lättemäe, 2001. "Determinants of Estonian Sovereign Credit Rating," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2001-03, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Oct 2001.
    18. António Afonso, 2002. "Understanding the Determinants of Government Debt Ratings: Evidence for the Two Leading Agencies," Working Papers Department of Economics 2002/02, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    19. Kalotychou, Elena & Staikouras, Sotiris K., 2006. "An empirical investigation of the loan concentration risk in Latin America," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 363-384, October.
    20. Philipp Harms & Michael Rauber, 2004. "Foreign aid and developing countries' creditworthiness," Working Papers 04.05, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    21. Jelena Laušev & Aleksandar Stojanović & Nataša Todorović, 2011. "Determinants Of Debt Rescheduling In Eastern European Countries," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, vol. 56(188), pages 7-31, January –.
    22. Bruno Ferreira Frascaroli & Jailson Da Conceição Teixeira De Oliveira, 2014. "A Performance Das Agências De Ratings De Risco Soberano E Os Fundamentos Macroeconômicos Dos Países: Um Estudo Sobre As Atribuições De Risco," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 121, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    23. Velloso, Helvia & Bustillo, Inés, 2000. "Bond markets for Latin American debt in the 1990s," Series Históricas 12, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    24. Martín Grandes, 2007. "The Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads: Theory and Facts From Latin America," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 44(130), pages 151-181.

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