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Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations; A Cross-Country Analysis

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  • Claudio Montenegro
  • Abdelhak S Senhadji

Abstract

The paper estimates export demand elasticities for a large number of developing and developed countries, using time-series techniques that account for the nonstationarity in the data. The average long-run price and income elasticities are found to be approximately -1 and 1.5, respectively. Thus, exports do react to both the trade partners’ income and to relative prices. Africa faces the lowest income elasticities for its exports, while Asia has both the highest income and price elasticities. The price and income elasticity estimates have good statistical properties.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Montenegro & Abdelhak S Senhadji, 1998. "Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations; A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Working Papers 98/149, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:98/149
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Riedel, James, 1984. "Trade as the Engine of Growth in Developing Countries, Revisited," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 56-73, March.
    2. Marquez, Jaime & McNeilly, Caryl, 1988. "Income and Price Elasticities for Exports of Developing Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 306-314, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shane, Mathew & Roe, Terry L. & Somwaru, Agapi, 2008. "Exchange Rates, Foreign Income, and U.S. Agricultural Exports," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 37(2), October.
    2. Cuevas, Víctor M., 2010. "The dynamics of Mexican manufacturing exports," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    3. Lawrence Edwards & Phil Alves, 2006. "South Africa'S Export Performance: Determinants Of Export Supply," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(3), pages 473-500, September.
    4. Algieri, Bernardina, 2015. "An Analysis of Regional Export Patterns: The Case of Calabria in Southern Italy - Un’analisi dei modelli di esportazione regionale: il caso della Calabria," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(3), pages 297-322.
    5. Michael Funke & Ralf Ruhwedel, 2002. "Export variety and export performance: Empirical evidence for the OECD countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 138(1), pages 97-114, March.
    6. WA Naudéa, 2001. "Shipping Costs And South Africa'S Export Potential: An Econometric Analysis," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 69(1), pages 123-146, March.
    7. Bernardina Algieri, 2014. "Drivers of Export Demand: A Focus on the GIIPS Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(10), pages 1454-1482, October.
    8. Christine Mutz & Thomas Ziesemer, 2008. "Simultaneous estimation of income and price elasticities of export demand, scale economies and total factor productivity growth for Brazil," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(22), pages 2921-2937.
    9. repec:spr:empeco:v:54:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1220-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Bernardina Algieri, 2004. "Price and Income Elasticities of Russian Exports," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 1(2), pages 175-193, December.
    11. Lawrence Edwards & Robert Z. Lawrence, 2006. "South African Trade Policy Matters: Trade Performance and Trade Policy," NBER Working Papers 12760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Kiyotaka Sato & Junko Shimizu & Nagendra Shrestha & Shajuan Zhang, 2013. "Industry-specific Real Effective Exchange Rates and Export Price Competitiveness: The Cases of Japan, China, and Korea," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 8(2), pages 298-321, December.
    13. Yuko Kinoshita, 2011. "Sectoral Composition of Foreign Direct Investment and External Vulnerability in Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 11/123, International Monetary Fund.
    14. J. Love & E. Turner, 2001. "Exports, domestic policy and world markets: a panel study," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(5), pages 615-627.
    15. Benkovskis, Konstantins, 2005. "Econometric analysis and forecasting of Latvia's balance of payments," MPRA Paper 23274, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Lawrence Edwards & Robert Lawrence, 2006. "South African Trade Policy Matters: Trade Performance & Trade Policy," CID Working Papers 135, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    17. Emilio Sacerdoti & Gonzalo Salinas & Abdikarim Farah, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Scaled-Up Aid; The Case of Niger," IMF Working Papers 09/36, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Bernardina Algieri, 2015. "Price and non-price competitiveness in export demand: empirical evidence from Italy," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 157-183, February.
    19. Vida Bobić, 2010. "Income and Price Elasticities of Croatian Trade – A Panel Data Approach," Working Papers 25, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.

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