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Recovery and Growth in Transition Economies 1990–97; A Stylized Regression Analysis

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper analyzes the determinants of growth in 25 transition economies during 1990–97. The paper’s main finding is that macroeconomic stabilization, structural reform, and reduction of government expenditures are key to achieving sustainable growth. Although the initial effect of reforms on output may be negative, over time the best growth performances are in those countries with the greatest progress in implementing reforms. The analysis also confirms that although adverse initial conditions hurt growth, their effect is small compared to the other factors.

Suggested Citation

  • International Monetary Fund, 1998. "Recovery and Growth in Transition Economies 1990–97; A Stylized Regression Analysis," IMF Working Papers 98/141, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:98/141
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    1. Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 2000. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Chapters,in: Currency Crises, pages 285-323 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Nadeem Ilahi & Riham Shendy, 2008. "Do the Gulf Oil-Producing Countries Influence Regional Growth? The Impact of Financial and Remittance Flows," IMF Working Papers 08/167, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Paul Cashin & Sam Ouliaris, 2004. "Key Features of Australian Business Cycles," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 39-58, March.
    4. Valerie Cerra & Ugo Panizza & Sweta C. Saxena, 2013. "International Evidence On Recovery From Recessions," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 424-439, April.
    5. Ratna Sahay & Deepak Mishra & Poonam Gupta, 2003. "Output Response to Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/230, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Hong, Kiseok & Tornell, Aaron, 2005. "Recovery from a currency crisis: some stylized facts," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 71-96, February.
    7. Ilzetzki, Ethan & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Végh, Carlos A., 2013. "How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 239-254.
    8. Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Economic Growth in East Asia Before and After the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 8330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Leon Podkaminer, 2013. "Development Patterns of Central and East European Countries (in the course of transition and following EU accession)," wiiw Research Reports 388, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    2. Eicher, Theo S. & Schreiber, Till, 2010. "Structural policies and growth: Time series evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 169-179, January.
    3. Neil Foster-McGregor & Robert Stehrer, 2005. "Modelling GDP in CEECs Using Smooth Transitions," wiiw Working Papers 36, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    4. Auty, R. M., 2003. "Third time lucky for Algeria? Integrating an industrializing oil-rich country into the global economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 37-47.
    5. Vojinović, Borut & Acharya, Sanjaya & Próchniak, Mariusz, 2009. "Convergence Analysis Among the Ten European Transition Economies," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 50(2), pages 17-35, December.
    6. repec:kap:iaecre:v:6:y:2000:i:2:p:127-149 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Valerie Mercer-Blackman & Anna Unigovskaya, 2004. "Compliance with IMF Program Indicators and Growth in Transition Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 55-83, May.
    8. Zhang, Fan, 2013. "The energy transition of the transition economies: An empirical analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 679-686.
    9. Auty, R. M., 2001. "Transition reform in the mineral-rich Caspian region countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 25-32, March.
    10. Suhrcke, Marc, 2000. "Are reforms from a centrally planned to a market system bad for health?," HWWA Discussion Papers 105, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    11. Valerie Mercer-Blackman & Anna Unigovskaya, 2004. "Compliance with IMF Program Indicators and Growth in Transition Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 55-83, May.

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