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Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America?

  • Alexander W. Hoffmaister
  • Jorge Roldos

This paper compares business cycles in Asia and in Latin America using structural vector autoregression analysis with panel data. The evidence for countries in these regions suggests that (i) the main source of output fluctuations is supply shocks, even in the short run; (ii) the real exchange rate is driven mostly by fiscal shocks; and (iii) terms of trade shocks are important for trade balance fluctuations but not for output or real exchange rate fluctuations. However, in Latin America, as opposed to Asia, output is affected more by external and domestic demand shocks.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 97/9.

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Length: 49
Date of creation: 01 Jan 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:97/9
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  1. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Ahmed, S. & Ickes, B. & Wang, P. & Yoo, S., 1989. "International Business Cycles," Papers 7-89-4, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  3. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1989. "Fiscal deficits and relative prices in a growing world economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 461-484, May.
  4. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
  5. Lastrapes, William D, 1992. "Sources of Fluctuations in Real and Nominal Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(3), pages 530-39, August.
  6. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 236-261, June.
  7. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "El problema de la afluencia de capital: Conceptos y temas
    [The Capital Inflows Problem: Concepts and Issues]
    ," MPRA Paper 13682, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Devereux, John & Connolly, Michael, 1996. "Commercial policy, the terms of trade and the real exchange rate revisited," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 81-99, June.
  9. Jong-Wha Lee, 1992. "International Trade, Distortions and Long-Run Economic Growth," IMF Working Papers 92/90, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476.
  11. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February.
  12. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1985. "Economics of Worldwide Stagflation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brun85-1.
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