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Inflation in Transition Economies; How Much? and Why?


  • Atish R. Ghosh


Following very high inflation rates at the beginning of the reform process, most transition countries have succeeded in lowering their inflation to more moderate rates. Inflation rates in the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union are now typically in the range of 10–60 percent. This essay examines whether a further reduction in inflation may be necessary. It concludes that low inflation may be important for achieving remonetization of the economy and sustained output growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Atish R. Ghosh, 1997. "Inflation in Transition Economies; How Much? and Why?," IMF Working Papers 97/80, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:97/80

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2002. "Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 97-111.
    2. Michael R. Wickens & Roberto Motto, 2001. "Estimating shocks and impulse response functions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 371-387.
    3. Oomes, Nienke & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2005. "Money demand and inflation in dollarized economies: The case of Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 462-483, September.
    4. Era Dabla-Norris & Holger Floerkemeier, 2006. "Transmission Mechanisms of Monetary Policy in Armenia; Evidence from VAR Analysis," IMF Working Papers 06/248, International Monetary Fund.
    5. John B. Taylor, 1995. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: An Empirical Framework," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 11-26, Fall.
    6. Yusuf Tashrifov, 2008. "The Design of Monetary Policy in a Small Transitional Economy: The Case of Tajikistan," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 11(1), pages 13-36, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan & Tenev, Stoyan, 1997. "Circumstance and choice : the role of initial conditions and policies in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1866, The World Bank.
    2. Eicher, Theo S. & Schreiber, Till, 2010. "Structural policies and growth: Time series evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 169-179, January.
    3. Theo Eicher & Till Schreiber, 2010. "Institutions and Growth: Time Series Evidence from Natural Experiments," Working Papers UWEC-2007-15-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    4. Marek Jarocinski & Andrei Jirniy, 1997. "Monetary Policy and Inflation in Georgia (1996-1998)," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0114, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    5. Boriss Siliverstovs & Olena Bilan, 2006. "Modeling Inflation Dynamics in Transition Economies: The Case of Ukraine," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 66-81, December.
    6. Falcetti, Elisabetta & Lysenko, Tatiana & Sanfey, Peter, 2006. "Reforms and growth in transition: Re-examining the evidence," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 421-445, September.
    7. Marek Dabrowski, 1999. "Disinflation, Monetary Policy and Fiscal Constraints. Experience of the Countries in Transition," CASE Network Reports 0016, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    8. Marcello Signorelli & Enrico Marelli, 2007. "Institutional change, regional features and aggregate performance in eight EU’s transition countries," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 37/2007, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    9. Arratibel, Olga & Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Thimann, Christian, 2002. "Inflation dynamics and dual inflation in accession countries: a 'New Keynesian' perspective," Working Paper Series 0132, European Central Bank.
    10. Alexander, Volbert & von Furstenberg, George M., 2000. "Monetary unions--a superior alternative to full dollarization in the long run," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 205-225, December.
    11. Falcetti, Elisabetta & Raiser, Martin & Sanfey, Peter, 2002. "Defying the Odds: Initial Conditions, Reforms, and Growth in the First Decade of Transition," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 229-250, June.


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