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Current Account Imbalances in AsEAN Countries; Are they a Problem?

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  • Jonathan David Ostry

Abstract

Applying a consumption-smoothing model to five ASEAN countries reveals that excessive private consumption has not tended to characterize their widening external imbalances in recent years, except to a small degree in Indonesia and Malaysia. Beyond consumption smoothing, however, a number of factors influence the desirability of running large external deficits, including the level and composition of external liabilities, the flexibility of macroeconomic policies, and the health of banking systems. Even when the current account deficit appears sustainable, there is a case to reduce them in order to lower the risks arising from such factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan David Ostry, 1997. "Current Account Imbalances in AsEAN Countries; Are they a Problem?," IMF Working Papers 97/51, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:97/51
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mercereau, Benoît & Miniane, Jacques Alain, 2008. "Should We Trust the Empirical Evidence from Present Value Models of the Current Account?," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-10, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    2. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals, and Sudden Stops," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(s1), pages 1-49, June.
    3. Benoît Mercereau, 2003. "The Role of Stock Markets in Current Account Dynamics; Evidence from the United States," IMF Working Papers 03/108, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Ramkishen Rajan, 2010. "The Currency and Financial Crisis in Southeast Asia: A Case of 'Sudden Death' or Death Foretold'?," Working Papers id:2583, eSocialSciences.
    5. Guy Debelle & Gabriele Galati, 2007. "Current Account Adjustment and Capital Flows," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 989-1013, November.
    6. Noppadol Buranathanung & Chaipat Poonpatpibul, 2003. "External Debt Dynamics and Current Account Sustainability," Working Papers 2003-10, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    7. Nopphadon Buranathanung & Chaipat Poonpatpibul, 2002. "External Debt Dynamics and Current Account Sustainability," Working Papers 2002-03, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    8. Lau, Evan & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2007. "Accounting for the Current Account Behavior in ASEAN-5," MPRA Paper 1322, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Graham Bird & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2001. "Coping with, and cashing in on, international capital volatility," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 1-23.
    10. Lau, Evan & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Haw, Chan Tze, 2006. "Current account: mean-reverting or random walk behavior?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 90-107, January.
    11. Jaime Guajardo & Guillermo Le Fort, 1999. "Cuenta Corriente y Desvíos Transitorios en Términos de Intercambio y Volúmenes de Exportaciones: Chile 1985-1999," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 49, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Alpaslan AKÇORAOĞLU & Erkan AĞASLAN, 2009. "Current Account Deficits, Sustainability and Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from Turkey, 1987-2008," Ekonomik Yaklasim, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association, vol. 20(72), pages 1-20.
    13. repec:wsi:serxxx:v:48:y:2003:i:01:n:s0217590803000591 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Jenny Corbett & David Vines, 1998. "The Asian Crisis: Competing Explanations," SCEPA working paper series. SCEPA's main areas of research are macroeconomic policy, inequality and poverty, and globalization. 1998-12, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    15. Jacques A Miniane & Benoît Mercereau, 2004. "Challenging the Empirical Evidence From Present Value Models of the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 04/106, International Monetary Fund.

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