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Monetary Policy and Leading Indicators of Inflation in Sweden

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  • Josef Baumgartner
  • Göran Zettergren
  • Ramana Ramaswamy

Abstract

This paper derives a set of leading indicators of inflation for Sweden. It also discusses methodological and policy issues pertaining to the estimation of these indicators. The main findings are: (1) narrow money is the most powerful leading inflation indicator; (2) broad money and inflation expectations have significant predictive information on inflation; (3) the output gap, interest rates, and the credit aggregate have some predictive information on inflation, and this information is confined to a shorter time horizon than either the monetary aggregates or inflation expectations; and (4) implied forward rates have only weak predictive information on inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Josef Baumgartner & Göran Zettergren & Ramana Ramaswamy, 1997. "Monetary Policy and Leading Indicators of Inflation in Sweden," IMF Working Papers 97/34, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:97/34
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    Cited by:

    1. Irving Fisher Committee, 1997. "First Meeting of the Irving Fisher Committee, 18-26 August 1997, Istanbul," IFC Bulletins, Bank for International Settlements, number 01.
    2. Gibson, Heather D. & Lazaretou, Sophia, 2001. "Leading inflation indicators for Greece," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 325-348, August.
    3. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2006. "Money and Swedish Inflation Reconsidered," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 270/2006, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    4. Muscatelli, V Anton & Tirelli, Patrizio & Trecroci, Carmine, 2002. "Does Institutional Change Really Matter? Inflation Targets, Central Bank Reform and Interest Rate Policy in the OECD Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(4), pages 487-527, Special I.
    5. J.M. Berk, 1998. "Monetary transmission: what do we know and how can we use it?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 51(205), pages 145-170.
    6. V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 1998. "Institutional Change, Inflation Targeting and the Stability of Interest Rate Reaction Functions," Working Papers 9815, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Aug 1998.
    7. Belke, Ansgar & Polleit, Thorsten, 2006. "Money and Swedish inflation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 931-942, November.
    8. J.M. Berk, 1998. "Monetary transmission: what do we know and how can we use it?," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 51(205), pages 145-170.
    9. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2004. "A Model for Forecasting Swedish Inflation," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 246/2004, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.

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