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Is the Exchange Rate a Shock Absorber? the Case of Sweden

Author

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  • Alun H. Thomas

Abstract

This paper uses a structural vector autoregression representation of the Mundell-Flemming model to analyze the determinants of movements in Sweden’s real exchange rate. It finds that, while (supply and demand) shocks account for over 60 percent of the forecast error variance, comparable to several Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries, demand shocks account for a higher fraction of these real shocks in Sweden than in those core countries. If real demand shocks result from controllable macroeconomic policies, the cost of relinquishing the exchange rate is no higher, and may be lower, for Sweden than for most core EMU countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Alun H. Thomas, 1997. "Is the Exchange Rate a Shock Absorber? the Case of Sweden," IMF Working Papers 97/176, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:97/176
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sfia, Mohamed Daly, 2006. "Tunisia: Sources Of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations," MPRA Paper 3129, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bergbom, Lennart, 1998. "Exchange Rate Variability Inside and Outside the EMU," Working Paper Series 1998:26, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    3. Kiptui, Moses, 2015. "Sources of Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Kenya: The Relative Importance of Real and Nominal Shocks," MPRA Paper 61515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Michael Funke, 2000. "Macroeconomic Shocks in Euroland vs. the UK: Supply, Demand, or Nominal?," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 37, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
    5. Lars Calmfors & Asa Johansson, 2006. "Nominal Wage Flexibility, Wage Indexation and Monetary Union," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(508), pages 283-308, January.
    6. Lian An & Yoonbai Kim, 2010. "Sources of Exchange Rate Movements in Japan: Is the Exchange Rate a Shock-Absorber or a Source of Shock?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 265-276, May.
    7. Jesús Rodríguez López & José L. Torres, "undated". "Following the yellow brick road? The Euro, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 06-03, FEDEA.
    8. Artis, Michael & Ehrmann, Michael, 2006. "The exchange rate - A shock-absorber or source of shocks? A study of four open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 874-893, October.
    9. Hilde Bjørnland, 2004. "The Role of the Exchange Rate as a Shock Absorber in a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 23-43, January.
    10. Dermot Hodson, 2003. "The Exchange Rate as an Adjustment Mechanism - A Structural VAR Approach to the Case of Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(2), pages 151-172.
    11. Siwei Goo & Reza Siregar, 2009. "Economic Shocks And Exchange Rate As A Shock Absorber In Indonesia And Thailand," Staff Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number sp72, April.
    12. Bergvall, Anders, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability: The Case of Sweden 1972-1996," Working Paper Series 2000:25, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    13. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb15/1 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Tao Wang, 2004. "China; Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations," IMF Working Papers 04/18, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Wang, Tao, 2005. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 753-771, December.
    16. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan & Masten, Igor, 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through in EMU acceding countries: Empirical analysis and policy implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1375-1391, May.

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