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International Evidenceon the Determinants of Trade Dynamics

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  • Eswar S Prasad
  • Jeffery A. Gable

Abstract

This paper provides some new empirical perspectives on the relationship between international trade and macroeconomic fluctuations in industrial economies. First, a comprehensive set of stylized facts concerning fluctuations in trade variables and their determinants are presented. A measure of the quantitative importance of international trade for the propagation of domestic business cycles is then constructed, focusing on the role of external trade as a catalyst for cyclical recoveries. Finally, structural vector autoregression models are used to characterize the joint dynamics of output, exchange rates, and trade variables in response to different types of macroeconomic shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Eswar S Prasad & Jeffery A. Gable, 1997. "International Evidenceon the Determinants of Trade Dynamics," IMF Working Papers 97/172, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:97/172
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    Cited by:

    1. Edith Skriner, 2008. "Forecasting Global Flows," FIW Working Paper series 009, FIW.
    2. Huh, Hyeon-seung & Kim, David & Kim, Won Joong & Park, Cyn-Young, 2015. "A factor-augmented VAR analysis of business cycle synchronization in east Asia and implications for a regional currency union," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 449-468.
    3. Montalbano, Pierluigi, 2011. "Trade Openness and Developing Countries' Vulnerability: Concepts, Misconceptions, and Directions for Research," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1489-1502, September.
    4. José García-Solanes & Jesús Rodríguez-López & José Torres, 2011. "Demand Shocks and Trade Balance Dynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, pages 739-766.
    5. Ivrendi, Mehmet & Guloglu, Bulent, 2010. "Monetary shocks, exchange rates and trade balances: Evidence from inflation targeting countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1144-1155, September.
    6. Skriner, Edith, 2007. "Forecasting Global Flows," Economics Series 214, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    7. Massimo Giuliodori, "undated". "The Empirical Relevance of a basic sticky-price intertemporal model," Working Papers 2001_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    8. Fisher, L. A. & Huh, H-S., 2002. "Real exchange rates, trade balances and nominal shocks: evidence for the G-7," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 497-518, August.
    9. Huh, Hyeon-seung & Kim, David & Kim, Won Joong & Park, Cyn-Young, 2013. "A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression Analysis of Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia and Implications for a Regional Currency Union," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 385, Asian Development Bank.
    10. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 251-285, May.
    11. Mthuli Ncube & Eliphas Ndou, 2013. "Working Paper 169 - Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Shocks on South African Trade Balance," Working Paper Series 448, African Development Bank.
    12. Hyeon-seung Huh & Won Soon Kwon, 2015. "Sources of Fluctuations in the Real Exchange Rates and Trade Balances of the G-7: A Sign Restriction VAR Approach," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 715-737, September.
    13. Fabrizio Erbetta & Luca Agnello, 2001. "The martingales: theoretical and empirical characteristics," CERIS Working Paper 200107, Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY -NOW- Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.
    14. Luigi Bocola, 2006. "Trade and Business-Cycle Comovement: Evidence from the EU," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 96(6), pages 25-62, November-.
    15. Giovanna Segre, 2000. "Foreign Direct Investment and Trade in the EU: Are They Complementary or Substitute in Business Cycles Fluctuations?," CERIS Working Paper 200007, Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY -NOW- Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Balance of trade; Trade balance; exchange rates; OECD industrial economies; exchange rate; international trade; trade variables; real exchange rate; output growth;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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