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An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Laura Papi
  • G. C. Lim

Abstract

High and variable inflation has been a central feature of the Turkish economy since the 1970s. This paper seeks to shed some light on the determinants of inflation in Turkey by analyzing price determination within the framework of a multi-sector macroeconomic model during 1970–95. The main findings are that monetary variables (initially money, more recently the exchange rate) play a central role in the inflationary process, that public sector deficits contribute to inflationary pressures, and that inertial factors are quantitatively important. Policymakers’ commitment to active exchange rate depreciation on several occasions in the past 15 years has also contributed to the inflationary process.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Papi & G. C. Lim, 1997. "An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 97/170, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:97/170
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    Cited by:

    1. Dibooglu, Sel & Kibritcioglu, Aykut, 2004. "Inflation, output growth, and stabilization in Turkey, 1980-2002," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 43-61.
    2. Nwaobi, Godwin C, 2009. "Inflation,Unemployment and Nigerian Families: An empirical investigation," MPRA Paper 14596, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Oya Pinar Ardic, 2006. "Output, the Real Exchange Rate and the Crises in Turkey," Working Papers 2006/03, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    4. Daniel Leigh & Marco Rossi, 2002. "Leading Indicators of Growth and Inflation in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 02/231, International Monetary Fund.
    5. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/3003 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Oya Pınar Ardıc & Faruk Selcuk, 2006. "The dynamics of a newly floating exchange rate: the Turkish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 931-941.
    7. Kibritçioğlu, Aykut, 2002. "Causes of Inflation in Turkey: A Literature Survey with Special Reference to Theories of Inflation," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 43-76.
    8. Ozturk, Ilhan, 2002. "Velocity Effect On Inflationary Growth of Turkey: Evidence From Co-integration Analysis and Granger's Causality Test," MPRA Paper 259, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Oya Celasun & R. Gaston Gelos & Alessandro Prati, 2004. "Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 493-509, November.
    10. Levent, Korap, 2006. "An empirical analysis of Turkish inflation (1988-2004): some non-monetarist estimations," MPRA Paper 19630, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Us, Vuslat & Ozcan, Kıvılcım Metin, 2005. "Optimal univariate expectations under high and persistent inflation: new evidence from Turkey," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 346(3), pages 499-517.
    12. Aykut Kibritcioglu, 2004. "A Short Review of the Long History of Turkish High Inflation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 28(2), pages 1.
    13. Fatma Zeren & Levent Korap, 2010. "A Cost-based Empirical Model of the Aggregate Price Determination for the Turkish Economy: A Multivariate Cointegration Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(2), pages 173-188, June.
    14. Ruzima, Martin & Veerachamy, P, 2015. "A Study on Determinants of Inflation in Rwanda from 1970-2013," MPRA Paper 73222, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Faruk Selçuk, 2005. "The Policy Challenge with Floating Exchange Rates: Turkey’s Recent Experience," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 295-312, July.
    16. Kisu Simwaka, 2004. "The feasibility of adopting inflation targeting in Malawi: an empirical analysis," Macroeconomics 0407015, EconWPA.
    17. Francis Y Kumah, 2006. "The Role of Seasonality and Monetary Policy in Inflation Forecasting," IMF Working Papers 06/175, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Hesham Alogeel & Maher Hasan, 2008. "Understanding the Inflationary Process in the GCC Region; The Case of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait," IMF Working Papers 08/193, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Alfonso Mendoza V., 2003. "The Inflation-Output Volatility Tradeoff and Exchange Rate Shocks in Mexico and Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 3(1), pages 27-51.
    20. Ilker Domac & Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 2002. "between Dollarization and Inflation : Evidence from Turkey," Discussion Papers 0207, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    21. Jérôme Creel & Günes Kamber, 2004. "Debt, deficits and inflation on the road to the EU: the case of Turkey," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 91(5), pages 157-174.
    22. Koffie Ben Nassar, 2005. "Money Demand and Inflation in Madagascar," IMF Working Papers 05/236, International Monetary Fund.

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