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Phillips Curves, Phillips Lines and the Unemplyment Costs of Overheating

Author

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  • Douglas Laxton
  • Peter B. Clark

Abstract

Most empirical work on the U.S. Phillips curve has had a strong tendency to impose global linearity on the data. The basic objective of this paper is to reconsider the issue of nonlinearity and to underscore its importance for policymaking. After briefly reviewing the history of the Phillips curve and the basis for convexity, we derive it explicitly using standard models of wage and price determination. We provide some empirical estimates of Phillips curves and Phillips lines for the United States and use some illustrative simulations to contrast the policy implications of the two models.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas Laxton & Peter B. Clark, 1997. "Phillips Curves, Phillips Lines and the Unemplyment Costs of Overheating," IMF Working Papers 97/17, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:97/17
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    Cited by:

    1. Isard, Peter & Laxton, Douglas & Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, 2001. "Inflation targeting with NAIRU uncertainty and endogenous policy credibility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 115-148, January.
    2. Marco Antonio Vega de la Cruz & Diego Winkelried Quezada, 2004. "El efecto arrastre de la inflación mundial en economías pequeñas y abiertas," Premio de Banca Central Rodrigo Gómez / Central Banking Award "Rodrigo Gómez", Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, number prg2004, enero-jun.
    3. Odile Chagny & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2002. "Le taux de chômage d'équilibre. Discussion théorique et évaluation empirique," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 81(2), pages 205-244.
    4. Kumar, Anil & M. Orrenius, Pia, 2016. "A closer look at the Phillips curve using state-level data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 84-102.
    5. Jeff Borland & Ian McDonald, 2000. "Labour Market Models of Unemployment in Australia," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2000n15, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    6. Dolado Juan & Pedrero Ramón María-Dolores & Ruge-Murcia Francisco J., 2004. "Nonlinear Monetary Policy Rules: Some New Evidence for the U.S," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-34, September.
    7. Marco Antonio Vega de la Cruz & Diego Winkelried Quezada, 2004. "The Dragging Effect of World Inflation in Small Open Economies," Premio de Banca Central Rodrigo Gómez / Central Banking Award "Rodrigo Gómez", Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, number prg2004eng, enero-jun.
    8. Rod Cross & Julia Darby & Jonathan Ireland, 1997. "Uncertainties Surrounding Natural Rate Estimates in the G7," Working Papers 9712, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    9. David Mayes & Matti Viren, 2002. "Asymmetry and the Problem of Aggregation in the Euro Area," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 47-73, March.
    10. Richard Black & David Rose, 1997. "Canadian Policy Analysis Model: CPAM," Staff Working Papers 97-16, Bank of Canada.
    11. Jorge E. Restrepo L., 2008. "Estimating the NAIRU for Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(2), pages 31-46, August.
    12. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1903 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Marco Vega & Diego Winkelried, 2004. "How Does Global Disinflation Drag Inflation in Small Open Economies?," Macroeconomics 0403008, EconWPA.
    14. Jorge E. Restrepo, 2006. "Estimaciones de NAIRU para Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 361, Central Bank of Chile.
    15. Debelle, Guy & Vickery, James, 1998. "Is the Phillips Curve a Curve? Some Evidence and Implications for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 384-398, December.
    16. Semmler, Willi & Gross, Marco, 2017. "Mind the output gap: the disconnect of growth and inflation during recessions and convex Phillips curves in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2004, European Central Bank.
    17. Alvaro Aguiar & Manuel Martins, 2005. "Testing the significance and the non-linearity of the Phillips trade-off in the Euro Area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 665-691, October.
    18. Mayes, David G. & Viren, Matti, 2005. "Monetary policy problems for currency unions: asymmetry and the problem of aggregation in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 219-251, March.
    19. S. Sgherri, 2000. "When is labour market flexibility welcome? More on asymmetric policy impacts in Europe," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 619, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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