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Macroeconomic Cycles in China

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  • S. E Oppers

Abstract

This paper investigates the macroeconomic cycles China has experienced since the onset of reform in the late 1970s. It finds that the recurrent inflationary episodes that characterize the cycles are associated primarily with surges in the main components of aggregate demand. The most recent cycle stands out in achieving for the first time a reduction in inflation without a major slowdown in growth. The soft landing was facilitated by a number of factors, including increases in capacity as a result of the surge in investment spending early on in the cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • S. E Oppers, 1997. "Macroeconomic Cycles in China," IMF Working Papers 97/135, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:97/135
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Guy Longueville & Nhu-Nguyen Ngo, 2004. "Le système bancaire chinois : un risque systémique ?," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 77(4), pages 187-202.
    2. Michael Funke, 2005. "Inflation in Mainland China - Modelling a Roller Coaster Ride," Working Papers 152005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    3. Koyin Chang & Dennis Wilson & Yung-Hsiang Ying & Yoonbai Kim, 2010. "The decomposition of disturbances to national output of China-the evidence of sectoral and regional shocks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(6), pages 747-757.
    4. Yin Zhang & Guanghua Wan, 2005. "China's Business Cycles: Perspectives from an AD-AS Model ," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 445-469, December.
    5. GERLACH, Stefan & Peng, Wensheng, 2006. "Output gaps and inflation in Mainland China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 210-225.
    6. Jisheng Yang, 2010. "Expectation, excess liquidity and inflation dynamics in China," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(3), pages 412-429, September.
    7. R. Becker & Y. Wang, 2013. "Measuring the Chinese business cycle," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(28), pages 3988-4003, October.
    8. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Understanding the inflation-output nexus for China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 82-90, March.
    9. Jorg Scheibe, 2003. "The Chinese Output Gap During the Reform Period 1978-2002," Economics Series Working Papers 179, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    10. Simon, György, 2001. "Reform és növekedés Kínában
      [Reform and growth in China]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 673-692.
    11. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2009. "Business cycle and inflation synchronisation in Mainland China and Hong Kong," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 404-418, June.
    12. Laurenceson, James & Rodgers, Danielle, 2010. "China's macroeconomic volatility -- How important is the business cycle?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 324-333, June.
    13. Zhang, Chengsi & Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2012. "Multivariate model-based gap measures and a new Phillips curve for China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 60-70.
    14. Min Gong & Wenpu Li, 2010. "Assessing the role of aggregate demand and supply shocks in China’s macroeconomic fluctuation," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(3), pages 464-488, September.
    15. Joerg Scheibe & David Vines, 2005. "A Phillips Curve For China," CAMA Working Papers 2005-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    16. Li, Cheng, 2010. "Government Size and Macroeconomic Stability: Sub-National Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 28226, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Scheibe, Jörg & Vines, David, 2005. "A Phillips Curve for China," CEPR Discussion Papers 4957, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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