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Capital Flows to Brazil; The Endogeneity of Capital Controls

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  • Eliane A. Cardoso
  • Ilan Goldfajn

Abstract

This paper creates an index of capital controls to analyze the determinants of capital flows to Brazil, accounting for the endogeneity of capital controls by considering a government that sets controls in response to capital flows. It finds that the government reacts strongly to capital flows by increasing controls on inflows during booms and relaxing them in moments of distress. The paper estimates a vector autoregression with capital flows, controls, and interest differentials. It shows that controls have been temporarily effective in altering levels and composition of capital flows but have had no sustained effects in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Eliane A. Cardoso & Ilan Goldfajn, 1997. "Capital Flows to Brazil; The Endogeneity of Capital Controls," IMF Working Papers 97/115, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:97/115
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claessens, Stijn & Dooley, Michael P & Warner, Andrew, 1995. "Portfolio Capital Flows: Hot or Cold?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(1), pages 153-174, January.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
    3. Garcia, Marcio G. P. & Barcinski, Alexandre, 1998. "Capital Flows to Brazil in the Nineties: Macroeconomic Aspects and the Effectiveness of Capital Controls," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 1), pages 319-357.
    4. Dooley, Michael P, 1996. "Capital Controls and Emerging Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(3), pages 197-205, July.
    5. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Smith, R. Todd, 2002. "Temporary controls on capital inflows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 327-351, August.
    6. R. B. Johnston & Chris Ryan, 1994. "The Impact of Controlson Capital Movementson the Private Capital Accounts of Countries' Balance of Payments; Empirical Estimates and Policy Implications," IMF Working Papers 94/78, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1999. "The Aftermath of Appreciations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 229-262.
    8. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    9. Willy A Hoffmaister & Carlos I. Medeiros & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1997. "Cyclical Fluctuations in Brazil's Real Exchange Rate; The Role of Domestic and External Factors," IMF Working Papers 97/128, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Cardenas, Mauricio & Barrera, Felipe, 1997. "On the effectiveness of capital controls: The experience of Colombia during the 1990s," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 27-57, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brazil; Capital Flows; Capital Controls; capital inflows; capital outflows; net capital flows;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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