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The Egyptian Stabilization Experience; An Analytical Retrospective


  • Arvind Subramanian


This paper analyzes the successful Egyptian stabilization experience during the 1990s, focusing on its distinctive features and contrasting them with the recent experiences of other developing countries. The key policy elements were a large fiscal adjustment, use of an exchange rate anchor that has endured for over six years, supported by prudent monetary policies, and early moves to liberalize interest and exchange markets. The outcomes included the avoidance of an output collapse despite the magnitude of fiscal adjustment; avoidance of stresses on the financial system; reversal of endemic dollarization; financial deepening at the expense of the banking system; and maintenance of external viability despite a lackluster export performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Arvind Subramanian, 1997. "The Egyptian Stabilization Experience; An Analytical Retrospective," IMF Working Papers 97/105, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:97/105

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    2. Mohamed El-Erian, 1988. "Currency Substitution in Egypt and the Yemen Arab Republic: A Comparative Quantitative Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 85-103, March.
    3. S. Fisher & R. Sahay & C. A. Vegh, 1997. "Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies: The Early Experience," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 5.
    4. Pablo E. Guidotti & Carlos A. Rodriguez, 1992. "Dollarization in Latin America: Gresham's Law in Reverse?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 518-544, September.
    5. Robert Brandon Kahn & Adam Bennett & María Vicenta Carkovic S. & Susan M Schadler, 1993. "Recent Experiences with Surges in Capital Inflows," IMF Occasional Papers 108, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman, 1992. "Capital Inflows to Latin America; The 1970's and the 1990's," IMF Working Papers 92/85, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mohamed A. El-Erian, 1992. "Restoration of Access to Voluntary Capital Market Financing: The Recent Latin American Experience," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(1), pages 175-194, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ossama Mikhail, 2004. "Economic Freedom and The Business Cycle: The Egyptian Experience," Macroeconomics 0402002, EconWPA.
    2. Klaus-Stefan Enders, 2007. "Egypt—Searching for Binding Constraints on Growth," IMF Working Papers 07/57, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Zaki, Mokhlis Y., 2001. "IMF-Supported Stabilization Programs and their Critics: Evidence from the Recent Experience of Egypt," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1867-1883, November.
    4. Philip Arestis, 2003. "Financial Sector Reforms in Developing Countries with Special Reference to Egypt," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_383, Levy Economics Institute.
    5. Marinheiro, Carlos Fonseca, 2008. "Ricardian equivalence, twin deficits, and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in Egypt," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1041-1056.
    6. Yamada, Toshikazu, 2008. "Sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction under Mubarak's Program," IDE Discussion Papers 145, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    7. Gutner, Tammi, 1999. "The political economy of food subsidy reform in Egypt," FCND discussion papers 77, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Léonce Ndikumana, 2003. "Capital Flows, Capital Account Regimes, and Foreign Exchange Rate Regimes in Africa," Working Papers wp55, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    9. Achy, Lahcen, 2001. "Equilibrium exchange rate and misalignment In selected MENA countries," MPRA Paper 4799, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2001.


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